Ever since he came to power in 2012, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has achieved a chameleon-like character in international affairs – firmly supported by the United States, Russia, the European Union, and China. But despite managing this difficult balancing act to keep all major foreign powers on side, he’s fast losing support at home. Faced with mass student-led anti-corruption protests that have paralysed Serbia, the 55-year-old “favourite autocrat” in Europe will have a hard time holding on to his position.
Serbian students have been on strike for months as part of a larger movement demanding accountability for the tragic incident on 1 November in the city of Novi Sad, when a massive concrete awning at the railway station collapsed, resulting in the deaths of 15 people. Students, as well as a significant portion of the Serbian population, blame the collapse on what is widely portrayed as endemic corruption in the Balkan nation.
Vucic’s close allies, however, claim that the West is behind protests, reportedly aiming to overthrow the Serbian leader. The same rhetoric comes from the Kremlin, whose officials have repeatedly stated that the West is attempting to orchestrate a “colour revolution” in Belgrade.
Over the past 13 years, the West has favoured Vucic for his leadership offering stabilocracy – stability at the cost of democratic shortcomings.
This is the same Serbia, under Vucic, that indirectly supplied Ukraine with €800 million (A$1.3 billion) worth of ammunition, and signed several international declarations condemning Russia’s invasion. Yet Moscow continues backing the Serbian populist president, given that Belgrade never formally joined anti-Russian sanctions. That is why the Kremlin portrays Vucic to the Russian audience as a leader of the European country allegedly “resisting Western pressure” to impose sanctions on Russia, even though the West has never seriously made such a request.
Over the past 13 years, the West has favoured Vucic for his leadership offering stabilocracy – stability at the cost of democratic shortcomings. China’s investments or adoring visits by Xi Jinping haven’t disabused the West of close ties to Vucic, which are seen to the benefit of the United States and the European Union. Vucic made numerous concessions to the West regarding Kosovo, de facto recognising its 2008 unilaterally declared independence from Serbia. He also demonstrated a willingness to allow the British–Australian mining giant Rio Tinto to extract Serbian lithium, even though polls showed that 55 per cent of the Serbian population strongly opposed the idea, while only 25 per cent were in favour of Rio Tinto’s plans.
It is, therefore, no surprise that Vucic enjoys Western support. In December 2023, following controversial local elections that led to mass protests in Belgrade, then US ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill supported Vucic by blaming the opposition for “violence and vandalism against state institutions”. Most recently, on 25 January, senior Trump administration official Richard Grenell said that Washington “does not support those who undermine the rule of law or who forcefully take over government buildings”.
Students, however, never attempted to take over any government buildings. The protests have been largely peaceful. Nevertheless, their actions led to the resignation of Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic. Although that does not necessarily mean that Vucic will follow in his footsteps, his days in power seem to be numbered.
The fact that protests, labour strikes, and street blockades are taking place not only in major cities but also in small towns – once bastions of the pro-Vucic Serbian Progressive Party – clearly shows that he no longer enjoys widespread popularity. Even if he politically survives the ongoing demonstrations, he is unlikely to remain in power after 2027, when his mandate expires.
If history is any guide, neighbouring Montenegro – once part of Yugoslavia, as well as the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro – went through a similar process in 2019-20, after the tiny Balkan nation’s autocratic leader Milo Djukanovic signed a controversial bill forcing religious communities to provide a register of everything they own. The law effectively deprived the Serbian Orthodox Church of ownership of church buildings and estates, provoking mass protests that lasted for several months. As a result, Djukanovic’s Democratic Party of Socialists lost the 2020 parliamentary elections, and in 2023, his 32-year-long rule finally came to an end.
Despite being backed by both Russia and the West, Vucic could easily have the same political fate. Still, his reign will be remembered as a unique political phenomenon. Vucic is possibly the only leader who has been supported by policymakers in both Moscow and Washington, while at home he is equally despised by both pro-Russian Serbian nationalists and pro-Western liberals.
Although his ability to navigate such opposing forces has marked his leadership, the growing discontent in Serbia has led to a serious political and social crisis that is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.
