India, explained.
Finland's Alexander Stubb delivers the keynote address at the Raisina Dialogue 2026 (MEA Photo Gallery/Flickr)
Europe is searching for a lifeline while the Indian mood on the United States has truly soured.
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What Raisina 2026 revealed about a world pulling apartWhat Raisina 2026 revealed about a world pulling apart
The conflict with Iran threatened to derail India’s Raisina Dialogue this year – flight disruptions from the Middle East preventing many delegates from attending. But the event, hosted by the Observer Research Foundation, still attracted high-powered attendees, having won a reputation as a place that can bring together players from opposing sides. The most prominent example was presentations from both the Israeli Foreign Minister and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister at the talks earlier this month.
I was fortunate to participate in the conference through the ORF-hosted Asian Forum on Global Governance, more commonly known as the Raisina Young Fellows Program. It was worth observing what had changed from the key themes of last year’s talks – and what had remained the same.
Despite high optimism in India for Donald Trump’s second stint in the White House, a more evident pessimism has taken hold. Frustration has grown as a result of the United States’ response to the conflict with Pakistan last April and May, and the tariffs Trump imposed in response to India’s importation of Russian oil. At Raisina, the more direct approach from the United States was on full display when Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau told the audience that the United States will not make the same mistakes with India that it made with China. That comparison with its implication of unrestrained rivalry is unlikely to go down well in New Delhi.
Formed as successor to the previous Look East Policy, the Act East Policywas designed to encourage greater engagement with Southeast Asia, East Asia, and the Pacific. However, after a decade, substantial change has yet to materialise. The Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Influence Index – measuring the influence of external and intra-regional partners on Southeast Asia – found India to be the 11th most active partner in Southeast Asia in 2018. In 2025, India remained in the same position, with only a slight increase in score. This was reflected in the speaker lineup at the Raisina Dialogue. Of the hundreds of presenters, only a handful were from Southeast Asia, East Asia, or the Pacific. The flight disruptions might have contributed, but the pattern was clear.
Delegates to the Raisina Dialogue 2026 (MEA Photo Gallery/Flickr)
In previous years’ dialogues, there were concerns that Europe may look to become closer to China during Trump’s second term, alongside a sense that European leaders were lecturing India. In this year’s conference, the feeling was more that Europe was looking to India for support as its relationship with the United States sours. While this was the view across the majority of European participants – even with ideas of an “Indo-Mediterranean” regional concept being floated – Finland’s President Alexander Stubb made this plain. Reflecting the ideas from his recent book, The Triangle of Power, he defined three blocs – the Global South, Global East, and Global West. He sees the Global South as a shaper of a new order and called for “values-based realism” in Europe to try to bring in the Global South, which he clearly felt would be led by India – even though those nations themselves have yet to be convinced.
One of the great strengths of the Raisina Dialogue is that is provides a platform for all nations to come together and present their perspectives. Yet it was apparent that the world is still highly regionalised. This was most pronounced among the European presenters. Despite efforts by the organisers to shape a more global agenda, European participants would often hijack these conversations and revert them to their continent’s narrow focus. In a session about a potential conflict over Taiwan, for example, a participant was asked how Europe “sees the conflict”. If participants were to take full advantage of the conference, and understand the views and concerns of other regions, greater cooperation could be possible.
Jack Sato participated in the Raisina Dialogue as a participant in the Observer Research Foundation-hosted Asian Forum on Global Governance/Raisina Dialogue Young Fellows Program. His travel was funded by the Lowy Institute and the Observer Research Foundation.
About the author
Jack Sato
Jack Sato is a Data Analyst for the Asia Power Index at the Lowy Institute.
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