Climate & environment, explained.
Droughts create far wider issues than simple water shortages (Jouni Rajala/Unsplash)
Droughts and water shortages are likely to jeopardise global security far sooner than we think.
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Why future wars will be fought over water supply Why future wars will be fought over water supply
In the coming years, increasing water insecurity will threaten many nations’ internal stability, challenge the viability of large cities worldwide, and worsen international conflicts. Of most concern is that the world’s leadership lacks even an intellectual framework to conceptualise this threat, let alone take meaningful action.
A recent scientific study revealed a staggering loss of surface and ground water worldwide since 2002. All continents have undergone unprecedented levels of drying. Worse, the areas experiencing the most extreme drying have grown and interconnected, threatening much of the Northern Hemisphere. An area stretching from Western Europe through the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia, the Tibetan Plateau, and into Northern China is one of the worst affected. North Africa is also under threat, as is a colossally sized area stretching from northern Canada into Central America.
The results of inaction on water insecurity will be catastrophic. By 2050, water challenges could threaten more than half of the world’s food production. Water shortages are projected to shrink Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 8% in high income countries and 10–15% in lower income countries. Demand for fresh water will outstrip supply by 40% by 2030. Unless nations carefully supervise the provision of water to their populations, threats to domestic security are near certain.
In the face of these challenges, the world’s largest powers will take aggressive action regardless of the impact on their weaker neighbours.
By 2050, 68% of the world’s population is expected to live in urban areas. As cities expand, they disrupt natural water replenishment cycles and insatiably use surrounding groundwater resources. Water shortages are already a common feature of urban life, with prominent examples including Bangalore, Beijing, Beirut, Bogota, Cairo, Cape Town, Denver, Hong Kong, Islamabad, Jakarta, Kuwait City, Lahore, London, Los Angeles, Miami, Muscat, New Delhi, Shanghai and Tianjin. Some water systems have verged on total collapse. In 2024, Istanbul, Mexico City and Johannesburg all came close to running completely dry but avoided disaster due to timely emergency measures. This year, Tehran is running dangerously dry, and Kabul will likely spend several years on the brink of water system collapse.
In the face of these challenges, the world’s largest powers will take aggressive action regardless of the impact on their weaker neighbours. The United States and Mexico have continually bickered over the implementation of a 1944 water-sharing treaty, with Washington threatening to withhold water to the Mexican cities of Tijuana and Mexicali as it is owed 1.5 billion cubic litres of water. China’s development of a water-intensive cotton industry in Xinjiang along with its expansion of dams and canals in the province has triggered water shortages in Kazakhstan. In an attempt to save water in the face of climate change-driven rain shortfalls, Russia has built 40 dams with 18 more on the way along the Volga River, exacerbating the decline of the Caspian Sea. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkmenistan have little recourse despite a 2018 agreement regulating the Caspian.
A worker produces cloth in Xinjiang, China, where the cotton industry has triggered water shortages (Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The major powers are not alone. All countries will become increasingly aggressive in their pursuit of fresh water. Egypt, perennially short of water, has provided military support to Ethiopia’s historic rival Somalia as Cairo attempts to pressure Addis Ababa regarding water rights on the Nile. Iran and Afghanistan, who have long disagreed on water rights along the Helmand River, briefly skirmished along the border in 2023 when the water dispute was at its highest pitch. Although a treaty regulating water flows is in place, Tehran continues to express frustration with access to the river’s water. Iran’s Minister of Energy publicly emphasised water security while the country this year intensified its forced repatriation of 700,000 Afghan migrants.
The current level of continental drying will worsen as global leaders ignore current warning signs and refuse to take meaningful action on climate change.
As supplies continue to decline, an outright conflict over water seems inevitable in the coming years. The most likely candidate is the feud between India and Pakistan. The countries share the Indus River Basin, which originates in India, but provides the lifeblood for Pakistan’s agriculture and commerce sectors. The Indus Basin is experiencing massive drying both due to the loss of glaciers in the Himalayas and declines in rainfall due to climate change. Both are likely irreversible. The rivals agreed to a treaty in 1960 to govern water flows in the basin. While the agreement had survived several previous rounds of violence, New Delhi now claims that it is no longer bound by the treaty. Pakistan has warned India that any disruption of its water supply would be considered “an act of war”.
Water will increasingly serve as a vulnerability in future conflicts. The current level of continental drying will worsen as global leaders ignore current warning signs and refuse to take meaningful action on climate change. Water issues are typically addressed on case-by-case bases centered on the challenges of individual aquifers and river basins. However, droughts and water shortages create far wider issues including massive numbers of migrants and refugees. The continent-spanning nature of these threats means no nation is immune. Climate change and abuse of existing water resources will be one of the primary drivers of conflict and instability for the rest of the century.
About the author
Patrick Yeager
Patrick Yeager is a writer and researcher focusing on South Asia and climate change issues.
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