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12 October 2026
Available for comment: Rahul Nath, Taili Ni
The 2026 Southeast Asia Aid Map reveals development finance to the region has fallen to its lowest level in a decade, with China cutting aid rather than stepping in to fill the gap left by retreating traditional donors, including the United States and Japan.
The 2026 edition of the Map shows total official development finance (ODF) to Southeast Asia fell nearly 10% to US$26 billion in 2024, down from US$29 billion the previous year and well below pre-pandemic levels.
Japan recorded the largest single reduction in ODF, by US$1.5 billion, as pandemic-era loans were fully disbursed and major infrastructure projects neared completion.
Aid from traditional bilateral partners is projected to fall by at least another US$1.76 billion in 2025, with Vietnam, Timor-Leste and Thailand forecast to be most affected.
But traditional donors are not the only ones retreating. China was the second-largest source of reduced ODF in 2024, with its funding falling nearly 23% to US$3.7 billion.
"China is not filling the gap left behind as traditional bilateral donors cut their aid budgets," write lead authors Rahul Nath and Taili Ni.
"New commitments by China also point to a continuation of subdued financing going forward, likely reflecting a more selective approach by both Beijing and Southeast Asian governments."
As bilateral partners pull back, the multilateral development banks (MDBs) are playing a larger role. In 2024, the MDBs provided nearly US$13 billion, almost half of all ODF to the region.
The Asian Development Bank (US$5 billion) and the World Bank (US$4.7 billion) remained the region's largest development partners, while the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank almost quadrupled its spending to US$2.75 billion.
But the authors caution that the MDBs' stabilising role is not guaranteed.
"As shareholders continue to cut their aid budgets, they are increasingly asking the MDBs to do more with essentially the same capacity and balance sheets," they write.
"The MDBs have responded at scale to the fuel crisis, but they are now expected to simultaneously deliver countercyclical crisis response, climate and infrastructure finance, social sector programs, and general budget support."
China remains the region's largest infrastructure financier, but its commitments to new infrastructure projects have stalled for a third consecutive year.
Development finance for energy security has fallen from nearly US$11 billion in 2015 to US$2.3 billion in 2024, and spending on renewable energy has declined by two-thirds since 2018, despite repeated pledges to support the region's clean energy transition.
The authors say the 2026 Iran war has exposed the region's vulnerability to energy and price shocks and has highlighted the importance of social protection systems — policies designed to reduce poverty, manage risk, and support vulnerable communities through crises.
While Southeast Asia receives a higher share of aid for social protection than the global average, funding to the region's four least-developed countries — Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Timor-Leste — fell markedly in 2024.
“A sustained shock would test systems that underpin economic, social, and political resilience in the region, at a time when total ODF is already declining," the authors write.
Australian support to Southeast Asia held steady across sectors and partners, which is significant given the substantial cuts by many other development partners.
KEY FINDINGS
ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AID MAP
The Southeast Asia Aid Map is a comprehensive database tracking official development finance flows to Southeast Asia. The 2026 edition of the Map encompasses the period from 2015 to 2024. It includes data on almost 150,000 projects carried out by 116 development partners, totalling US$318 billion. The research covers all 11 Southeast Asian nations: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam. The project aims to increase coordination, improve accountability, and strengthen decision-making and policy debate on aid, development, and geoeconomic competition in the region.
MEDIA CONTACT
Andrew Griffits
Head of Media and Communications
+61 2 8238 9035
media@lowyinstitute.org (Opens in new window)
Available for comment
Rahul Nath
Research Fellow, Indo-Pacific Development Centre
Dr Rahul Nath is a Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre and is responsible for the Institute’s Southeast Asia Aid Map. His research areas include aid and development policy, development finance, sovereign debt, macroeconomic dynamics, multilateral development banks, and climate finance.
Taili Ni
Research Associate, Indo-Pacific Development Centre
Taili Ni is a Research Associate in the Indo-Pacific Development Centre at the Lowy Institute, working on the Southeast Asia Aid Map. Her work focuses on tracking and analysing foreign aid and development finance flows to Southeast Asia.