From the watchtower of history, the view is disquieting

‘We stand, all of us,’ said Winston Churchill in 1941, ‘upon the watchtowers of history.’ Now, as then, the view from the watchtower is disquieting.

There are patches of sunshine. Nearly three-quarters of Australians (73%) believe democracy is the superior form of government. Public support for Ukraine is strong. Majorities support Australia coming to the defence of countries such as New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the United States.

But clouds are accumulating. More than half of Australians (53%) report feeling ‘unsafe’ in the world — an all-time high. In 2010, that figure was just 7%. More Australians are pessimistic about the country’s economic performance now than during the Covid pandemic or the Global Financial Crisis.

Australians are wary of Donald Trump’s America. Only 31% of Australians trust Washington to act responsibly in the world — a new low. Confidence in President Trump to do the right thing in world affairs has fallen since last year’s Poll, to 21%. The number of Australians who say the US alliance is important to our security has come down, but remains robust at 73%. Support for the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS has held firm.

In the days before our Poll went to field, the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran, and global energy markets were roiled by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Initially, Australians disapproved of strikes on leadership targets, and were divided on their support for strikes on nuclear targets. By late May, eight in ten Australians (80%) said they disapproved of the way President Trump was handling the military campaign.

Australians have long been concerned about China’s intentions. Trust in China to act responsibly sits at just 28%, an eight-point increase from last year but still less than half its 2006 peak. Xi Jinping inspires about as much confidence as Donald Trump. A clear majority of Australians (62%) believe that China will pose a military threat within 20 years.

A military conflict between the United States and China ranks highly among Australians’ concerns, but they are also anxious about cyberattacks, an economic downturn, and the rise of authoritarian systems. A record majority (55%) say the number of migrants coming to Australia is ‘too high’, and support for cultural diversity has fallen. More than six in ten Australians (64%) say the risks of artificial intelligence outweigh the benefits.

In 2026, the liberal international order has been replaced by something illiberal, nationalistic, and disorderly. The 22nd Lowy Institute Poll is a snapshot of Australians’ thinking as they reckon with this change.