Dangerous to pick on Greg Sheridan, as The Australian’s resident foreign affairs commentator is known to enjoy a bust-up on the op-ed pages.
But I want to highlight a sentence from his column this week to make a point about a common weakness in analytical writing.
Sheridan is examining the latest developments in the Middle East, particularly the chances of Iran imposing fees to transit the Strait of Hormuz. He concludes:
“This will probably be for Trump as damaging as the withdrawal from Kabul was for Joe Biden, possibly much worse.”
The overall judgement isn’t what I want to draw attention to. Sheridan is building an interesting bridge across recent history in a bid to guide readers to the consequences of this moment.
But two words collapse what might otherwise be a solid connection: “Probably” and “possibly”.
The “probably” implies that Sheridan isn’t quite sure about the comparison and has an escape hatch in case things turn Trump’s way. The “possibly” gives Sheridan the bonus of doubling down if he turns out to be right.
Analysts should always ask whether the get-out clause is necessary.
This conclusion doesn’t help the reader grasp the moment. It leaves an impression of bad tidings, but little more. Strange, given that Sheridan earlier declares: “Things will certainly get worse before they get better” (my emphasis).
I’ve slipped caveats into my own writing, so glass houses and all that. I also don’t think readers are served by delivering false certainties. In writing intelligence reports, for example, a lot of thinking can go into the difference between the words “may”, “might” or “will”.
But analysts should always ask whether the get-out clause is necessary. Are they confident enough to make a call?
Sheridan is writing a newspaper column, on deadline, with a space to fill. A little padding is forgivable.
But probability matters far more for those in officialdom, seeking to make judgements about intentions or facts. Whether Saddam Hussein may, might or did have weapons of mass destruction is a case in point.
