China is currently undertaking the largest military expansion in its modern history. According to a recent US Intelligence Community assessment, Beijing’s objective is to become the “preeminent power in East Asia” – gradually displacing the United States and reducing its influence across the Indo-Pacific. Given the scale and velocity of China’s military build-up, and the increasing demands on US forces globally, it is becoming increasingly clear that Washington cannot deter Beijing alone. Deepening defence cooperation with allies and partners will be essential to maintaining a favourable balance of power.
In this context, the Australia–United Kingdom–United States (AUKUS) partnership –focused on the development of nuclear-powered submarines and cutting-edge technologies including artificial intelligence, cyber tools, and autonomous systems – has the potential to become the cornerstone of Western efforts to counter China’s growing military footprint.
But the promise of AUKUS will only be realised if the political will among the three governments remains firm and consistent.
I first became aware of the AUKUS proposal in August 2021, shortly after being confirmed by the US Senate as Principal Deputy Administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The NNSA, in partnership with the US Navy, is responsible for building and maintaining the nuclear reactors that power America’s aircraft carriers and submarines. During one of my initial AUKUS briefings, it became immediately clear that Australia’s decision to pursue nuclear-powered submarines was a strategic game-changer in the Western Pacific.
The AUKUS submarine partnership represents a serious counterweight to China’s growing maritime power
The rationale is straightforward. Any military conflict with China would almost certainly centre on air and naval operations. Nuclear-powered submarines would dramatically enhance Australia’s ability to contribute meaningfully to such a fight. These submarines, powered by sophisticated US and UK reactor designs, are extraordinarily difficult for adversaries to detect. Unlike conventionally powered submarines, which require regular refuelling and have limited operational endurance, nuclear submarines can remain on station for months – limited only by food supplies and crew endurance.
Under the current plan, Australia will acquire up to eight nuclear-powered submarines. These platforms would not only give Australia capabilities it has never had before, but also the operational capacity necessary to conduct high-tempo, sustained military operations in contested waters. Strategically, this represents a major win for the United States and its allies – especially in a region where naval presence and endurance are increasingly critical.
Beijing’s fierce opposition
The strategic significance of AUKUS is best reflected in Beijing’s reaction. Since the initiative was announced, China has waged a sustained diplomatic campaign to derail or discredit it – especially the submarine component.
Chinese officials have incorrectly accused the AUKUS countries of violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and setting a dangerous precedent for transferring weapons-grade nuclear material to a non-nuclear-weapon state. They’ve pressed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to launch formal reviews and drawn misleading comparisons between AUKUS and Iran’s nuclear program. Chinese diplomats have also targeted countries in Southeast Asia and the Global South, warning that AUKUS could trigger a regional arms race.
In bilateral forums, China has labelled Australia a “pawn” of the United States and warned of “severe consequences” for hosting nuclear submarines. At the same time, Chinese state media have pushed narratives suggesting that AUKUS is little more than an Anglo-American attempt to revive Cold War-style bloc confrontation.
To date, US, UK, and Australian diplomats have done a commendable job parrying these attacks and explaining the defensive nature of the pact. But Beijing’s intensity underscores what is at stake: the AUKUS submarine partnership represents a serious counterweight to China’s growing maritime power.
Operational and logistical challenges
Despite its strategic promise, AUKUS faces real implementation hurdles – particularly in three areas: Australia’s limited nuclear infrastructure, program cost, and US shipyard capacity.
Australia has no prior history operating nuclear-powered vessels and only operates a single nuclear research reactor. From the outset, one of the key questions I raised in briefings was how Australia could develop the technical base and personnel pipeline necessary to support nuclear-powered submarines.
Encouragingly, progress is being made. The Royal Australian Navy has already begun sending sailors to the US Navy’s Nuclear Power School in Charleston, South Carolina. So far, 12 Australian officers have graduated, with six currently serving aboard US Virginia-class submarines. These early steps are critical and show that the long-term investment in capability-building is already underway.
Enhancing allied burden-sharing, countering China, creating US jobs, and generating investment in the American industrial base – these are all key pillars of Trump’s worldview.
Financially, the program is ambitious. AUKUS is projected to cost between $268 and $368 billion over the next 30 years. That includes the purchase of US Virginia-class submarines, the domestic construction of SSN-AUKUS boats in Australia, and significant investments in naval infrastructure. Though the price tag is high, successive Australian governments – both Liberal and Labor – have shown strong bipartisan commitment. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, in particular, has embraced the strategic logic of AUKUS and signalled that Australia is prepared to meet the financial demands.
Still, a key bottleneck lies in US shipyard capacity. As part of the deal, the United States is expected to sell three- Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s as an interim step until the SSN-AUKUS submarines, which will be built in Australia, come online in the 2040s. Yet the US submarine industrial base – having atrophied since the end of the Cold War – currently lacks the capacity to meet that demand. The US Navy can currently only produce 1.2 boats per year, but needs to reach a sustained rate of 2.3 to fulfil both US and AUKUS requirements.
Here too, progress is being made. The United States has launched a major push to modernise shipyards and expand the submarine industrial workforce. Australia has pledged to invest in the US industrial base to help boost production capacity. While it remains uncertain whether these efforts will close the gap in time, the right actions are being taken, and political momentum remains strong.
The Trump administration and AUKUS
In June, The Financial Times reported that the US Department of Defence was reviewing the feasibility of fulfilling AUKUS commitments given submarine production shortfalls. That review reportedly surprised many within the US government, including officials at the White House, State Department, and Department of Energy. The move raised concerns in Canberra and London about the durability of US political support for the agreement – especially under a second Trump administration.
Yet AUKUS should align naturally with President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy and overall Indo-Pacific strategy. Enhancing allied burden-sharing, countering China, creating US jobs, and generating investment in the American industrial base – these are all key pillars of Trump’s worldview. US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth has stated that China remains the pacing threat for the US military. Having a capable ally like Australia field nuclear-powered submarines in support of US strategy should be a no-brainer.
Moreover, Australian investments in the US industrial base will help rebuild America’s submarine capacity and sustain thousands of high-paying jobs. If Trump is looking for a tangible win in US defence and industrial policy, AUKUS is it. To signal the critical importance of the partnership, Australia might consider naming its first Virginia-class submarine the HMAS Donald J. Trump.
AUKUS represents one of the most significant advancements in allied military cooperation since the end of the Cold War. It will enhance deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, help counterbalance China’s growing maritime power, and rebuild critical defence-industrial capacity in the United States and Australia. While the program faces real operational and political challenges, the strategic benefits far outweigh the risks. This is a generational investment in allied capability and credibility – one that will shape the regional balance of power for decades to come. Washington, Canberra, and London must stay the course.
