A Long March-5 rocket carrying a new communication technology test satellite blasts off from the Wenchang Space Launch Site on 11 June 2026, Wenchang, China (Zhou Guoqiang/VCG via Getty Images)
BRICS and the new scramble for space
Behind the rhetoric of Global South solidarity lies a familiar game of patron-client diplomacy.
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China’s economy is roughly five times India’s – about US$20.9 trillion against US$4.15 trillion (Opens in new window) – and makes up something like 60% of the bloc’s output, more without Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose membership is disputed (Opens in new window). Satellites are priced in dollars, and China alone outweighs everyone else in the bloc combined. Its footprint in orbit shows the same gap: China’s built or launched satellites for Egypt, Ethiopia, Brazil, Indonesia and Bolivia (Opens in new window), usually the same way: build it, train the operators, keep a hand on the ground station after the ceremony. A CSIS analysis found 64 countries (Opens in new window) engaged since 2000, three quarters of them from the Global South. As CSIS’s Matthew Funaiole put it, “this is really about who’s winning the space diplomacy race in the Global South.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will host the BRICS leaders' summit (MEAphotogallery/Flickr)
Washington runs a nearly identical operation: theArtemis Accords (Opens in new window) passed 71 signatories this year,non-binding commitments (Opens in new window) that align signatories with American standards, the same impulse in a gentler wrapper. A signature isn’t a decade of satellite debt, but both patrons lock in clients, the difference a matter of degrees.
That’s where the “client” label needs qualifying: the hunt doesn’t land the same way on everyone. Egypt has bought satellites from Ukraine (Opens in new window),Russia (Opens in new window), France, Italy and China; if the Chinese package really trapped buyers, Cairo couldn’t shop this freely. And the lock is political. Ethiopia and Bolivia don’t have that leverage: Bolivia borrowed US$251 million from the China Development Bank against a satellite it’s still paying off, while Ethiopia followed its first satellite with a second in 2020 (Opens in new window), and now a third. They stayed because they had nowhere else to stand.
Indonesia’s playing all the angles: the Chinese satellite and training, an unresolved question over who controls the data, an Indian tracking station on Biak since the 1990s (Opens in new window). None of it is really about principle. Its “independent and active” foreign policy doctrine is a survival tactic. A middle power without enough leverage to refuse anyone, Indonesia is running the only strategy that’s ever worked while refusing to fully commit to anyone. It’s the oldest trick for a state stuck between larger ones: bank the technology, keep more than one door open, and then let yourself be fought over because being fought over beats being ignored.
So, BRICS isn’t racing the West to space. It’s reviving the West’s oldest manoeuvre, trading access for loyalty and calling it partnership, while its two biggest members trust each other too little to run that play together. What you get instead is separate deals that happen to close at the same summit. The talks in New Delhi will show whether that changes.