China, explained.
French Navy personnel onboard a Falcon 200 surveillance aircraft scan the Yellow Sea for signs of illegal ship-to-ship transfers headed for North Korea (Quentin Tyberghien/Getty)
A once useful policy instrument is being undermined by evasion and a crisis of legitimacy
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The decline of sanctionsThe decline of sanctions
Sanctions have become one of the most heavily used tools in Western foreign policy, yet their effectiveness is being tested as never before. They were once seen as a measured response to aggression, offering a way to uphold international norms without military force. In practice, however, their impact is being blunted by overuse, sophisticated evasion, and an international environment that is less willing to accept Western leadership. Sanctions fatigue is becoming visible on several fronts.
Sanctions have pushed several states to explore ways to reduce their dependence on the dollar and Western financial infrastructure.
The loss of a broad international consensus is at the heart of the problem. Earlier generations of sanctions often relied on United Nations approval. Those measures had political weight because they reflected a shared decision by global powers. Today, the vast majority of active sanctions are imposed unilaterally or by regional blocs. They may be quicker to implement but they are also less persuasive. Countries that resent what they see as the extraterritorial reach of Western laws are increasingly reluctant to align themselves with these measures. The result is a fractured sanctions landscape that mirrors geopolitical rivalry more than a collective defence of global norms.
Evasion has become the second major challenge. Countries facing sanctions have learned how to adapt their economies, finance systems, and trade routes. Russia’s experience is particularly instructive. Its government and state-linked companies have spent years building alternative structures capable of limiting the impact of Western pressure. More than half of Russia’s foreign trade is now conducted in non-Western currencies. Networks of front companies, alternative shipping arrangements, and parallel financial channels have created an economic buffer that reduces the reach of Western regulators.
The maritime sector shows how serious the enforcement gap has become. Russia’s so-called shadow fleet continues to move restricted oil and petroleum products through international waters. These ships - now over 1,100 strong, triple the 2022 size - regularly change ownership and flag identity, with 113 vessels using false flags to ship 11 million tons of oil ($5.4 billion worth) in the first nine months of 2025 alone, per a November CREA report.
Regulators have been blunt about the scale of the challenge. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) warned governments in its June 2025 report on Complex Proliferation Financing and Sanctions Evasion Schemes that the rise of complex corporate structures, opaque financial vehicles, and digital assets is making enforcement much harder. Only 16% of assessed countries show high effectiveness in UNSCR-targeted sanctions, with North Korean and Russian typologies (eg. shell companies) dominant.
While Western governments have dramatically expanded their sanctions lists since 2022, the systems needed to implement and monitor these measures are struggling to keep pace. Banks and traders face a maze of overlapping rules, while sanctioned actors exploit every gap and delay. The imbalance between ambition and enforcement is becoming more evident with each new package of restrictions.
There is also a broader legitimacy problem. Western governments often present sanctions as an ethical alternative to conflict. Yet many countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America see them differently. They argue that sanctions inflict economic pain on civilians while leaving elites relatively untouched. This has become a recurring complaint from states that were once willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Western policies. Their frustration has grown as the humanitarian costs of sanctions have become more visible, especially in countries with fragile economies.
Sanctions that impose pain but offer no prospect of relief seldom change behaviour.
Strategic blowback is adding to the pressure. Sanctions have pushed several states to explore ways to reduce their dependence on the dollar and Western financial infrastructure. Russia and China now conduct much of their bilateral trade in their own currencies. India and Southeast Asian economies are experimenting with local currency settlements. None of these shifts threaten the central role of the dollar in the near term, but they show how sanctions can accelerate changes that weaken Western influence over time. Even US allies have voiced concern that the expanding reach of secondary sanctions exposes them to political risks they did not face in previous decades.
If sanctions are to remain viable, Western governments need a more disciplined strategy. Stronger enforcement cooperation is essential. That means sharing intelligence more effectively, harmonising regulations, and working closely with the private sector to identify evasion networks. Rapid innovations in financial technology also require updated legal frameworks that can keep pace with new methods of concealment.
A credible diplomatic pathway is just as important. Sanctions that impose pain but offer no prospect of relief seldom change behaviour. They harden resistance and push targeted states deeper into alternative economic systems. The West must design sanctions as part of a broader political process, not as a substitute for strategy.
Above all, Western leaders must rebuild legitimacy by addressing concerns in the Global South. As seen in the 5 December Putin-Modi talks on sustaining national currency settlements amid US tariff disputes, engaging critics and limiting third-country fallout is key. Without this, sanctions will continue to lose influence because they are being deployed without the collective support that once made them credible.
About the author
Imran Khalid
Imran Khalid is a geostrategic analyst and columnist on international affairs.
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