After winning global kudos for staring down Donald Trump’s Greenland fetish, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is bracing for a seminal election that will decide who steers Denmark into a new era of self-reliance over the next four years.
On Tuesday, voters will decide the make-up of Denmark’s 179-seat parliament and whether Frederiksen – dubbed Denmark’s Iron Lady – is worthy of a third term. Ninety is the magic number needed to form a government.
“This will be a crucial election for us, because in the next four years, we as Danes and as Europeans will really have to stand on our own two feet,” Frederiksen, the leader of the left-leaning Social Democrats, told reporters as she called an election months before a November deadline.
Recent polling shows a tight race between the left red bloc of political parties and the right blue bloc. The Moderates, a centrist party, led by Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, could be the kingmakers post-election. The former PM wouldn’t mind his old job back and an “extended version of the game of chicken” could ensue, according to Rune Stubager, a political science professor at Århus University.
It’s a bit like moving away from home and then still going home to your parents every other weekend and pretending you still live there. — Lars Løkke Rasmussen
Frederiksen’s party is hovering at around 21.5% support, which could equate to 38 seats, below the 27.5% from the 2022 election that netted her 50 seats. Her party suffered a wipeout during November’s municipal elections, but had a February bounce in support thanks to her strong leadership and ability to rally European allies at the height of the Greenland crisis.
“They haven’t made much headway in the polls since the election was called,” Stubager told me. “If the current polls hold up for the Social Democrats, it looks like their worst election for 100 years.”
Still, Stubager believes Frederiksen is the frontrunner because her party will likely be the largest.
Five days out from the election, it was curious to see the Greenland issue revived.
A story broke on DR, based on insights from 12 anonymous sources, that Denmark had shipped explosives to Greenland in January to blow up runways to prevent US military aircraft from landing, had Trump given the order to invade.
“It emphasises that the Danish government had seriously calculated the risk of an American attack. And that the Danish troops in that situation should be prepared to open fire on the Americans, who have otherwise been our allies for the last 80 years,” said political commentator Erik Holstein from the Danish online newspaper Altinget.
“On the one hand, it looks like a typical leak timed for the election campaign. On the other hand, it’s a story that DR has been working on for a long time, so it could be a coincidence that it’s landing now.”
The bulk of the campaign had been about domestic issues, including immigration, a ban on pesticides to protect drinking water, animal welfare standards in the pork industry and a wealth tax.
Danish rich listers are displeased with the Social Democrats’ policy to levy a wealth tax of 0.5% on 22,000 of the country’s most well-heeled with assets above 25 million Kroner ($5.4 million). The party wants to use the money generated to cut primary school class sizes from 26 students to 14. CEOs from leading companies such as Lego and Maersk are furious and warn the measure will cost jobs. Wind turbine giant Vestas’ chief executive, Henrik Andersen, has threatened to copy Norwegian tycoons who fled to Switzerland after Oslo brought in a similar wealth tax.
Regardless of the election winner, the next parliamentary term could see a paradigm shift in Denmark’s security and foreign policy – as the kingdom mulls a move under a French nuclear umbrella. Frederiksen announced that Denmark had said “oui” to discussing a Paris offer for France’s nuclear arsenal to play a bigger role in protecting Europe.
The move reflects deep scepticism of America under Trump and Rasmussen has outlined the difficult tightrope Denmark must walk.
“It is a process of detachment, where we have to free ourselves from someone we have a dependency on, in a way where they don't quite notice it. It’s a bit like moving away from home and then still going home to your parents every other weekend and pretending you still live there. It’s an extremely delicate balance,” Rasmussen said during an election debate at Europa think tank, according to Altinget.
With my background as a former Canberra Press Gallery reporter, I’ve been fascinated by a Danish TV2 series called Højskolen, in which all 12 political party leaders spend 24 hours hanging out at a boarding school.
The show is a cross between Big Brother, The Bachelor and Annabel Crabb’s Kitchen Cabinet. It features timed speed dates where political rivals sit down and chat on camera about whether they could see their parties forming a government and respectfully debating policy ideas.
The leaders shared a pasta bolognese meal cooked by Morten Messerschmidt from the Danish Peoples’ Party, which is the equivalent of Australia’s One Nation Party. Wednesday’s episode saw Frederiksen host a music quiz – where she played Donald Trump’s favourite song “YMCA” and Rasmussen served his political rivals G&Ts.
“Skål for Danmark.” (Cheers for Denmark)
