Africa, explained.
Children make their way home after school in Ale, Ethiopia (Taylor Flowe/Unsplash)
Despite immense infrastructure success, a neglected education sector risks turning concrete wealth into a hollow monument.
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Ethiopia’s grand projects fail the human capital testEthiopia’s grand projects fail the human capital test
Ethiopia has always been ambitious. Over the last 20 years, the country has reshaped its landscape with mega-dams, railways, industrial parks, and new air hubs, aiming to elevate itself to middle-income status. The key projects are the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa’s biggest hydropower scheme, and a new US$10 billion international airport near Bishoftu, partly funded by a US$500 million loan from the African Development Bank. These projects together reflect a nation eager to establish its presence on the global stage.
The GERD alone will generate around 5,150 megawatts of power once fully online – almost tripling electricity access, driving industrialisation, and positioning Ethiopia as a regional energy exporter. By 2040, the new Bishoftu hub is expected to handle 60 million passengers annually, rivalling Dubai and Addis Ababa’s current airport capacity combined. Tourism, already worth nearly US$5 billion annually before Covid-19, could double, while new logistics corridors and conference centres make Addis a continental node for trade and diplomacy. From 2004 to 2023, GDP per capita more than tripled, and infant mortality halved. These are real achievements and a source of pride for many Ethiopians.
Ethiopia has emphasised concrete and steel but neglected classrooms and teachers.
Yet behind this celebrated narrative lies a silent crisis: the neglect of education. Ethiopia has expanded access – net primary enrolment stands near 89 per cent – but the quality of learning remains alarmingly poor. UNESCO estimates that 90 per cent of 10-year-olds in Ethiopia cannot read a simple text, a figure the World Bank calls “learning poverty”. In 2024, 97 per cent of Grade 12 students failed to achieve 50 per cent on national exams. The system produces graduates, but too often without literacy, numeracy or skills demanded by modern labour markets.
Ethiopia spends about 3.7 per cent of GDP on education – well below UNESCO’s 6 per cent benchmark. Even within that budget, higher education consumes a disproportionate share, leaving primary and secondary schools under-resourced. Classrooms in rural areas often hold 50 or more students per teacher, textbooks are scarce, and curricula lag behind economic needs. Girls, pastoralist children and those in conflict-affected regions remain most excluded: UNESCO reported that 2.6 million children were out of school in Amhara and neighbouring regions in 2023 due to instability. This neglect of human capital risks turning infrastructure wealth into a hollow monument.
The contrast with East Asia is instructive. Singapore in the 1960s devoted 40 per cent of its budget to education and health, aligning human capital with industrial policy. Its first development plan prioritised a literate, technically trained workforce to meet the needs of multinational investors. Within two generations, it transformed into a knowledge-driven economy. Ethiopia, by comparison, has emphasised concrete and steel but neglected classrooms and teachers. Economist and Nobel laureate Amartya Sen’s capabilities approach is clear: freedoms like education expand real opportunities and sustain growth. Without them, dams and airports may lift GDP figures but leave societies fragile.
For Ethiopia, the true renaissance will come not when turbines spin or planes land, but when every child has the tools to turn opportunity into reality (Fabrizio Gandolfo/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
The African Union’s Agenda 2063 names “well-educated citizens and skills revolution” as continental aspirations. Ethiopia has endorsed these, as well as Sustainable Development Goal 4 on quality education. Yet the gap between rhetoric and reality is wide. UNESCO’s 2022 monitoring report warned that under-investment in education “condemns millions of children to remain poor labourers, just as their parents were”. Ethiopia cannot afford this cycle if it wants inclusive, sustainable prosperity.
Rebalancing is achievable. First, Ethiopia should gradually increase education expenditure to 6 per cent of GDP, focusing on early years and quality teaching. Incentives for rural deployment, investment in teacher training, and appropriate learning materials would help bridge gaps. Second, education must be integrated into the major projects that shape Ethiopia’s vision. The new airport could fund hospitality training centres; the GERD could support vocational schools for energy technicians. Each infrastructure project should include a skills-development component. Third, Ethiopia should strengthen international partnerships: engaging with the African Development Bank, UNESCO, and bilateral donors not only for dams and runways but also for classrooms, laboratories, and digital learning platforms.
Ethiopia has already shown what visionary ambition can achieve in infrastructure. Now it must apply the same determination to its people.
Moreover, to future-proof its development, Ethiopia should integrate green skills into education. Training in areas such as renewable energy and climate adaptation will help align infrastructure growth with sustainability and prepare youth for emerging job markets. Technology offers new opportunities. The government’s 2023–28 Digital Education Strategy, with solar-powered tablets and online content, is promising, but must be scaled equitably and made multilingual. Pastoralist and refugee children need tailored solutions, from mobile schools to inclusive teaching practices. Protecting education as a human right also requires tackling early marriage, child labour and exclusion of disabled students.
The International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights is explicit: education is indivisible from other human rights and must be enforced as such.
Ethiopia has already shown what visionary ambition can achieve in infrastructure. Now it must apply the same determination to its people. If the country continues to pour billions into concrete while classrooms remain neglected, it risks importing foreign labour to run its industries and widening inequality at home. Conversely, if it aligns its growth model with human capital investment, it could replicate Singapore’s trajectory – a resource-poor nation turned knowledge-rich success.
The Ethiopia of the future – modern, prosperous and respected – will not be built solely from dams and airports. It will be built in classrooms, where children learn to read, innovate and lead. Investing in education is not a distraction from development; it is the very foundation of it. For Ethiopia, the true renaissance will come not when turbines spin or planes land, but when every child, regardless of gender, region or wealth, has the tools to turn opportunity into reality.
About the author
Kurniawan Arif Maspul
Kurniawan Arif Maspul is a researcher and interdisciplinary writer focusing on Islamic diplomacy and Southeast Asian political thought.
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