China, explained.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te visits the College of the Marshall Islands in Majuro on 3 December 2024 (Akio Wang/Getty)
The widespread adoption of Beijing’s stance might constrain US-led deterrence efforts and could provide the PRC with extra licence to escalate military aggression.
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How much of the world really backs Beijing’s claim to Taiwan?How much of the world really backs Beijing’s claim to Taiwan?
China’s Ambassador to Australia wrote earlier this month that the international consensus on Beijing’s one-China principle is “unshakable” and that the trend towards its control over Taiwan is “unstoppable”.
Contrary to the PRC’s confident claims about the international consensus on its side, the world is divided on Taiwan.
This is just one recent example of Beijing’s global push to convince the world that, by right and eventually in practice, Taiwan is part of China.
Earlier this month, I published with the Lowy Institute a world-first dataset detailing every UN member state’s position on the governments in Taipei and Beijing. It reveals that although the People’s Republic of China (PRC) overstates the level of international support for its stance on Taiwan, Beijing’s views are gaining ground globally.
Beijing is certainly not alone in maintaining the one-China principle, which holds that “there is but one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China”. Some 119 countries (62% of UN member states) agree with Beijing and affirm this one-China principle. An additional 23 countries support Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China despite not using the “one-China principle” label.
This means that nearly three-quarters of countries (74% or 142 in total) now support Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China.
But that still leaves a large minority of countries that do not share the PRC position on Taiwan. Some 51 countries (26%) have stopped short of adopting Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China, while 74 countries (38%) have declined to endorse the PRC’s preferred one-China principle.
Contrary to the PRC’s confident claims about the international consensus on its side, the world is divided on Taiwan. The data reveals five distinct categories based on whether countries recognise the governments in Taipei or Beijing, and key differences in their level of support for the PRC’s position on Taiwan.
Nearly half of UN member states fall into the most pro-Beijing category (category five), while 21% fall into category two, which declines to endorse the Chinese government’s one-China principle, China’s sovereignty over Taiwan, or the PRC’s efforts to take control of the island.
A growing number of countries support PRC efforts to “achieve national reunification” without any caveat that Beijing’s objectives should be pursued peacefully.
These two categories are the largest groups of countries globally, and this polarisation looks likely to endure. While the most pro-Beijing category has grown in recent years, the size of category two has remained steady, and its members account for more than 50% of global GDP and world military spending.
Increasingly strong endorsements of the PRC position on Taiwan are nevertheless a common feature of recent joint communiqués between Beijing and many of its diplomatic partners.
An especially conspicuous example is the growing number of countries supporting PRC efforts to “achieve national reunification” without any caveat that Beijing’s objectives should be pursued peacefully. In September 2024, for example, 53 African states backed “all efforts by the Chinese government to achieve national reunification”.
Globally, 89 countries have combined their endorsement of Beijing’s one-China principle with what appears to be unqualified support for PRC efforts to “achieve national reunification”. This equates to approximately 46% of all UN member states.
The implications are open to debate and it remains to be seen precisely how these countries would respond if the PRC sought to take Taiwan by violent military means. But these numbers are nonetheless sobering for both the government in Taipei and countries hoping to maintain the cross-Strait status quo.
Given that “national reunification” on the Chinese government’s terms would entail its control over Taiwan and the end of the island’s de facto independence, it is plausible to conclude that nearly half of UN member states have, intentionally or not, formally endorsed a PRC takeover of the island.
China’s Ambassador to Australia might have exaggerated the level of international support for the PRC position on Taiwan. Yet the data underscores the large and growing cohort of countries backing Beijing.
Although the military balance in the Taiwan Strait usually grabs headlines, this evolving diplomacy matters, too. Just as the widespread adoption of Beijing’s stance towards Taipei might constrain US-led efforts at collective deterrence, it could provide the PRC with extra licence to escalate military aggression and other coercive measures against Taiwan.
About the author
Benjamin Herscovitch
Dr Benjamin Herscovitch is a Research Fellow in the School of Regulation and Global Governance at the Australian National University (ANU).
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