Hungary’s landslide election result has raised hopes of overcoming the country’s democratic backsliding, its record of hostility towards the European Union, and frayed relations with neighbouring Ukraine. Crowds of supporters engulfed the streets in Budapest after Péter Magyar and his pro-democratic centre-right Tisza Party comfortably defeated incumbent – and self-declared “illiberal” – prime minister Viktor Orbán on 12 April.
“Hungary will once again be a strong ally representing Hungarian interests because our country’s place is in Europe,” Magyar pledged before the flag-waving crowds. “We will restore the system of checks and balances. We will join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. We guarantee the democratic functioning of our country.”.
Orbán, the EU’s most vocal supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin, frequently obstructed efforts to provide aid and military support to Ukraine as well as to impose sanctions on Russia. Orbán further refused EU calls to reduce Russian energy imports, which account for more than 93% of Hungary’s oil supply.
That doesn’t mean Magyar will blithely throw his lot in with the West.
What the rest of the world knows about Magyar – so far – is that he aligns with the EU mainstream on Ukraine. Hungary, a Central European nation of 9.7 million people, experienced Soviet-aligned communist rule from 1945 to 1989, when it transitioned to democracy, subsequently joining NATO and the EU. Magyar’s vision is to fulfil the aspiration the memberships represent. During his first press conference after the result, Magyar called for Russia to cease its aggression against Ukraine and for the EU to deliver its €90 billion loan to the besieged country, although Hungary will not contribute to it. There is, however, some ambiguity about Magyar’s original pledge to phase out Russian energy dependence.
Over the past 16 years, Orbán’s manifesto of “illiberal democracy” has put him and his right-wing populist Fidesz Party on a collision course with Brussels. Last year, the EU Rule of Law report claimed that Hungary was not meeting its standards on addressing high-level corruption and independent functioning of the media and judiciary. Freedom House ranks Hungary as “Partly Free” with a score of 65 out of 100.
If Tisza’s victory had anything to do with its election campaign, then voters chose the party that put their domestic concerns first. In contrast to Orbán’s negative messaging about the EU and the Ukraine war, Magyar emphasised boosting the economy, addressing the cost of living and struggling public services. He is moving quickly. On the Friday after the election, he hosted meetings with EU officials to discuss the release of €17 billion in funding from the bloc, withheld pending the restoration of democratic norms.
The news of Magyar’s victory was cautiously welcomed across the border. Tim Zadorozhnyy, a political reporter at the Ukraine-based Kyiv Independent, told me that Ukrainians see Magyar as someone who could potentially reset relations between the two countries. “Ukrainians have perceived Orbán as the hostile actor, not Hungary itself,” Zadorozhnyy said. Magyar had immediately taken the chance to send a clear signal to Kyiv that he is ready to de-escalate tensions. “Magyar now has all the cards in his hands,” Zadorozhnyy said.
Magyar represents a next generation of Hungarian leaders to come of age after the fall of Communism. Unlike Orbán, Magyar will not be subordinated to Moscow. Magyar is young enough –45 years old – to have had a life primarily influenced by post-Communist Hungary and the wider democratic world. His championing of clean governance, meritocracy and media freedom is in line with the prevailing attitudes of Hungary’s younger and working age voters.
But that doesn’t mean Magyar will blithely throw his lot in with the West. According to Bálint Madlovics, a political scientist and researcher at the Central European University in Budapest, Magyar will find his own way, saying he “represents a more pragmatic stance than purely human rights-based Western voices.” Magyar held positions in the Fidesz government for years, before resigning in 2024. Tisza presently advocates mainstream traditional values alongside decency, respect and liberty as Hungarian rights, while rejecting isolationism.
The new government is likely to be formed in May, and with a supermajority of at least 138 of 199 parliamentary seats, it is expected to tackle the challenge of Fidesz loyalists occupying prominent positions in state institutions. Top level political appointees will likely be removed, lower-level figures implicated in corruption may face prosecution, but many professionals within institutions are seen as constrained rather than complicit. Madlovics said that “a wave of defections before the election suggests that parts of the system are already adapting.”
Magyar commands the favour of the country. A poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations this month found that three-quarters of Hungarians support EU membership. If this issue resonated most in the election results, Magyar will be on solid ground with his foreign policy.
