Indonesia, explained.
Thousands of drones form an image of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto during the 2025 President's Cup final celebration at Si Jalak Harupat Stadium in Soreang, Bandung Regency, Indonesia, 13 July 2025 (Ryan Suherlan/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
In a world portrayed as multipolar, Southeast Asia’s largest economy remains bound to the same unipolar logic of coercive economics.
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Indonesia at a discountIndonesia at a discount
Tariffs are often dismissed as technicalities, but the oscillation of US duties on Indonesian products reveals a deeper reality. Once a leading voice of the Non-Aligned Movement, Indonesia continues to struggle to assert its agency in today’s fragmented world order.
Initially set at 32 per cent, threatened to rise to 42 per cent, then “compromised” at 19 per cent, Jakarta rushed to proclaim the result of tariff negotiations with US President Donald Trump to be a diplomatic triumph. Yet behind the supposed reprieve lay a heavy price: a US$15 billion LNG commitment, US$4.5 billion in Midwest grain and soy imports, and 50 wide-body Boeing aircraft whose eventual operators remain unclear.
A tariff discount purchased through new dependencies is not a victory. It is the same old pattern, repackaged.
Trump’s tariffs expose an uncomfortable truth. In a world portrayed as multipolar, Southeast Asia’s largest economy remains bound to the same unipolar logic of coercive economics. At home, Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto postures as a nationalist leader who will not be dictated to. Abroad, he parades Indonesia’s entry into BRICS as if it shifts the gravitational centre of Jakarta’s diplomacy. Yet the moment Washington wields tariffs, the bravado unravels. What meaning does multipolarity hold if a single country can still dictate our steps with such ease?
This is not hedging; it is reactive autonomy. Independent-Active (Bebas-aktif), once articulated by Mohammad Hatta – Indonesia’s first vice president and a key architect of its non-alignment doctrine – to safeguard independence while shaping equilibrium, has been reduced to a hollow slogan. Free only to be shielded, active only when pushed around. Indonesia joins BRICS as a symbol, not as a means of leverage. To Beijing and Moscow, Prabowo smiles. To Washington, he bows.
A PT Garuda Indonesia aircraft taxis at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport in Cengkareng, Indonesia (Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Prabowo thrives on the image of toughness, a former general supposedly unafraid of anyone. He thunders at home, selling the narrative of an “Asian tiger” that cannot be dictated to. Yet when faced with real pressure, the bravado dissolves into compliance disguised as compromise. What is the worth of nationalist rhetoric if a single tariff threat can shatter it? Prabowo thrives on nationalist theatre. He weaponises defiance at home to mask submission abroad. The performance is deliberate – a shield for surrender packaged as strength.
More than inconsistency, this tariff saga reveals how economic pressure sustains old hierarchies. Tariffs are no longer mere market instruments; they are geopolitical weapons enforcing loyalty. A 19 per cent “discount” is not goodwill but a reminder that access to the US market is conditional, unilaterally written to serve American interests. Every dollar Indonesia spends on LNG, grain, and Boeing jets shores up Trump’s electoral base. For the United States, it is domestic politics. For Indonesia, it mortgages the future for a fleeting reprieve.
Indonesia has strong cards with a vast market, rare minerals, and a key Indo-Pacific position. Yet we leave them unused.
This is the new face of hierarchy wearing a friendlier mask. Tariffs, sanctions, technology restrictions, debt traps – different tools, same outcome: keeping developing nations aligned with the old architecture. Multipolarity does not erase these asymmetries. It merely multiplies the actors playing the same game. And when Indonesia responds by conceding more, it not only loses a transaction but reinforces the very logic that keeps it subordinate.
The contrast is stark with countries that use multipolarity to expand, not shrink, their room for manoeuvre. Brazil under Lula da Silva forces negotiations, Thailand guards its agricultural sovereignty, and Vietnam extracts technology. They compel great powers to compete for their favour and accommodate their national interests.
Indonesia has strong cards with a vast market, rare minerals, and a key Indo-Pacific position. Yet we leave them unused. We trade the future for today. BRICS becomes a stage for slogans, not leverage. We talk of multipolarity but act under unipolar rules.
The world sees it. Washington buys loyalty. Beijing exploits a fragile market. The Global South, once looking to Jakarta as a bridge, now sees a hesitant country fading into silence.
This is not just about Prabowo. It is a trap repeated by every leader. The world is not bipolar, but it is still unequal. Multipolarity without courage only multiplies patrons, not autonomy. Indonesia has lost agency. We no longer shape norms or define our own role. We are reduced to attendees, time buyers, and discount seekers.
The world moves on to digital sovereignty, tech imperialism, and climate apartheid. Brazil climbs through climate diplomacy. Turkey gains weight through mediation. Indonesia stays quiet – no stance on data, no lead on energy, no new story for the global order.
Trump’s tariffs are a symptom of a deeper absence of vision. We respond to threats by surrendering the future. We open new doors of dependency merely to delay old blows. Sovereignty does not collapse overnight. It erodes slowly through tariff discounts paraded as victories, through concessions justified as pragmatism.
Today we import grain; tomorrow we import postures; the day after we import principles. This is no longer about missed chances. It is about a nation losing its meaning. Wait too long at the crossroads, and you disappear from the path. Keep bowing, and Indonesia becomes a footnote. History remembers only those who dare to refuse being objects.
About the author
Virdika Rizky Utama
Virdika Rizky Utama, known as Virdi, is a Political Researcher and Executive Director at PARA Syndicate in Jakarta.
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