Solomon Islands has signed a security pact with China and set off a flurry of foreign policy chatter in Australia and the region. Understandably, the focus of the discussion is on why this has happened, what this means, what to do next, and of course, because Australia is in the midst of an election campaign, who should be blamed.
The major players in Australia all acknowledge that Solomon Islands as a sovereign nation has the right to enter into agreements with any other nation of its choosing. And this fact is an important anchor to the question what to do next, because evidently Australia has work to do if it is to be the security partner of choice in the region.
Regardless of what you think of the pact itself, its existence and the ensuing concern says the quiet part out loud – China has intentions in the region and Australia and its allies, namely the United States, are directly interested in constraining those intentions.
The thing is, Australia keeps going about it in ways that don’t seem to be accruing “partner of choice” status. Instead, over a period of time, the strategy seems to be to try and “out China, China”. From infrastructure investment facilities, increasing the percentage of the Australian aid program spent in the Pacific, and upgrading military and security arrangements à la AUKUS, Australia continues to accept that the only form of power that matters is military and economic might. And yet, Australia simply does not have the resources to win at that game. Such is the reality of being a middle power. But Australia does have power, nonetheless. And the goal now should be to amplify that power rather than play a game where the inevitable outcome is Australia’s own diminishment (in relevance, influence and security).
In considering what comes next for Australia, it is time to think seriously about re-writing the rules of the game.
Because, when the rules of the game are stacked against you, “winning” isn’t generally achieved by beating the odds, but rather, from changing the game. This is exactly what is needed now from Australian foreign policy.