Defence & security, explained.
A screenshot taken from drone footage of the "Operation Spiderweb" attack
By pioneering tomorrow’s battlefield tactics, Kyiv is rewriting military doctrine and setting the template for future wars.
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
Ukraine’s cheap robot drones extract a heavy price from RussiaUkraine’s cheap robot drones extract a heavy price from Russia
Ukraine’s strike on four Russian airfields on 1 June was one of the most effective operations of the war, causing an estimated US$7 billion in damage, disabling roughly a third of Russia’s strategic bombers. Planned in secret over 18 months by Ukraine’s State Security Service, Operation Spider Web used 117 cheap first-person view (FPV) drones smuggled into Russia and launched from trucks.
The attack on Russia’s long-range bomber fleet directly impacts its ability to terrorise Ukrainian cities. The New York Times wrote, “Ukraine is continuing to change the way wars will be conducted in the 21st century, according to US officials and military analysts.”
Moscow is now scrambling to figure out how to protect its vast territory from attacks that are increasingly precise and targeted. Some commentators were quick to call it Russia’s “Pearl Harbour Moment”.
Drones each worth a couple hundred dollars remotely launched from a cargo container inflicted billions in damages against Russia. A foreign adversary with far more resources could seek to replicate Kyiv’s innovations in the future, with chatter already spreading about the potential danger from Chinese cargo ships.
Kyiv followed up the airfield strikes with an attack on the Kerch Bridge in occupied-Crimea using underwater explosives. This was the third operation to strike at the bridge since 2022. This latest strike was likely a test run, signalling preparations for a future coordinated assault involving underwater drones, sea drones, aerial drones, and missiles to take out the bridge.
A Shrike FPV drone during water testing by Skyfall military technology company at an undisclosed location in Ukraine on 29 May 2025 (Andrew Kravchenko/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Throughout the war, Ukraine pushed deeper into Russia to prove Moscow’s red lines were imaginary. By late 2024, Ukrainian drones had knocked out about 10 per cent of Russia’s oil refineries and repeatedly struck the Engels base, home to strategic bombers. Attacks became so routine that China reportedly asked Kyiv not to strike Moscow during its leader’s visit. Long-range drones have frequently shut down Moscow’s airports, all made possible by Ukraine’s growing technical ingenuity and homegrown arsenal of drones.
In early May, uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) shot down fighter jets over the Black Sea. Ukraine used its Magura-7 drone boats – modified sea drones equipped with US-supplied AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles – to take out two Russian Su-30 aircraft over the Black Sea. Ukraine also seems to be using AI-assisted targeting to strike at the aircraft. Each jet was worth $50 million, while the sea drones are worth several hundred thousand.
This milestone follows a string of earlier successes, including Ukrainian sea drones taking out several Russian helicopters, showcasing the growing versatility of the sea drones. The cost-effectiveness is striking – a sea drone worth around $300,000 is now capable of taking out helicopters and fighter jets worth tens of millions.
Russia is struggling to keep up. Commenting on the situation, one of Russia’s top war correspondents, Alexander Sladkov, wrote: “Russia is reeling from enemy UAV raids. Now even the navy doesn’t know where to hide. The abbreviation ‘Black Sea Fleet’ (except for the marines) is practically absent from the context of the Special Military Operation.”
Sladkov added that Russia can’t strike back at Ukraine since it doesn’t have a conventional navy that consists of large ships to strike at.
Ukraine’s leadership believes that staying ahead in the technological race will not only sustain its war effort, but also inflict enough damage on the Kremlin to force a shift in Moscow’s strategic calculus.
By 2024, a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet had been damaged or destroyed. As the Russians adapted, Ukraine’s sea drone attacks in the Black Sea saw their success rate drop sharply from 85% to under 10%. Sea drones could no longer ram into naval ships that are hiding in the port. Ukraine responded by adapting its tactics, converting some sea drones into drone carriers that could launch airborne drones.
Once near shore, these carriers would launch smaller FPV drones to strike targets inland. In January this year, sea drones in the Black Sea launched FPV drones that struck Russian Pantsir-S1 air defence systems on land, and those systems cost around $20 million. According to Ukraine's defence intelligence, these drone carriers use “NATO-style artificial intelligence.”
Kyiv made it clear it is pursuing a “robots first” military strategy. Ukraine is building a drone wall to help hold the frontline and is racing to develop ground robots for battlefield support. Its sea drones menace Russia’s once-famed navy. Ukraine’s leadership believes that staying ahead in the technological race will not only sustain its war effort, but also inflict enough damage on the Kremlin to force a shift in Moscow’s strategic calculus.
The next phase of the naval race will focus on continuing to integrate various weapon systems onto sea drones, enabling swarm operations, expanding drone carrier capabilities, developing underwater weaponry, and deploying fully autonomous systems.
“Ukraine has developed technologies under real battlefield conditions that the rest of the world will want in the next five years,” said Oleksandra Ustinova, a Ukrainian member of parliament. “Countries will be scrambling to hire the engineers who built them.”
Ukrainian ingenuity is showing the world what the next phase of future warfare looks like.
About the author
David Kirichenko
David Kirichenko is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
