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4 February 2026
Carney’s rupture: Rethinking the rules-based order
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a frank and impassioned speech at this year’s World Economic Forum at Davos. He argued that in an era of great power competition, middle powers can no longer afford to maintain the fiction of a rules-based order. While never calling out President Trump by name, Carney highlighted the broader “rupture” in the global order.
Speaking with the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen, Lydia Khalil discusses the value of rhetoric and dissects how Carney’s remarks are being viewed in Canberra and other world capitals. While it has been much talked about, will Carney’s speech shift how middle powers coordinate globally?
00:00 - Introduction Lydia Khalil introduces the episode on Canadian PM Mark Carney's Davos speech about the breakdown of the rules-based international order
02:23 - Why This Speech Matters Sam Roggeveen discusses the significance of political rhetoric and why Carney's speech resonated globally
04:47 - Great Powers, Not Just Trump Discussion of how the speech addresses behaviour of all great powers (US, China, Russia), not solely the Trump administration
07:12 - Nothing New for Asian Leaders Lydia challenges whether this message is only significant because it came from a Western leader - Asian nations have said this for decades
09:58 - The Globalisation Reality Check Debate on whether "fortresses" are truly going up everywhere, or if it's primarily a US phenomenon while others double down on trade
12:34 - Geography is Destiny: Canada vs Australia Comparison of Canada's vulnerability (massive US border, trade dependency) versus Australia's more favourable strategic position
15:29 - The Value of Hypocrisy Discussion of how abandoning even the pretence of a rules-based order removes important standards and accountability
17:51 - Can Middle Powers Actually Cooperate? Sam's scepticism about middle powers forming effective security coalitions due to geographic dispersion and divergent interests
20:16 - Will Australia Have Its "Carney Moment"? Analysis of why Australian leaders lack political incentive to publicly question the US relationship - yet
22:43 - Australia's Strengths in a Coercive World Closing discussion on Australia's advantages: geographic distance, economic resilience, commitment to immigration and trade openness
24:52 - Outro
Featuring
Lydia Khalil
Lydia Khalil is Program Director of the Transnational Challenges Program at the Lowy Institute.
Sam Roggeveen
Sam Roggeveen is Program Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program. He is the author of The Echidna Strategy: Australia's Search for Power and Peace (Opens in new window), published by La Trobe University Press in 2023.
