China

Sixteen years of Lowy Institute Polls has uncovered the complex set of attitudes Australians hold about our largest trading partner. Australians’ views of China’s economy and people have tended to be positive, while Chinese investment and China’s human rights record have elicited negative views. This balance began to tip in 2019, when trust and warmth towards China reached record lows, and this year’s results confirm this downward trend.

Trust in China is at its lowest point in the history of the Poll, with 23% saying they trust China a great deal or somewhat ‘to act responsibly in the world’. Only 22% of Australians have some or a lot of confidence in China’s President Xi Jinping to do the right thing in world affairs (see page 8). And feelings towards China on a scale of 0° to 100° have fallen sharply in 2020, to 39°. This represents a drop of 10 degrees in a single year, and the lowest score that China has received in the history of the Poll.

Australians’ trust and warmth towards China have reached record lows

More Australians (55%) see China as ‘more of an economic partner’ than the 41% that see China as ‘more of a security threat’ to Australia. Far fewer Australians see China as an economic partner in 2020, in a 27-point fall from 82% to 55% since 2018. In 2018, Australians were asked to weigh up their perception of China as an economic partner versus a military threat, and the balance of opinion tipped far more heavily towards China being an economic partner (82%) rather than a military threat (12%).

The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent political debate have only heightened the scrutiny of the relationship between Australia and China — and in particular, the economic interdependence between the two countries.

In 2020, almost all Australians (94%) agree that the government should work ‘to find other markets for Australia to reduce our economic dependence on China’. This is the single largest point of agreement in the history of the Lowy Institute Poll. In 2019, 74% of Australians said Australia was too economically dependent on China.

There is also considerable scepticism about other forms of cooperation between Australia and China. A majority of Australians (57%) say the government should restrict ‘joint scientific research between China and Australia in defence and security-related fields’.

94% of Australians say we should find other markets to reduce economic dependence on China

Four in ten (39%) say that Chinese companies should be allowed to supply technology for critical infrastructure in Australia. In 2019, 44% said that protecting Australians from foreign state intrusion should be the first priority for government when considering whether foreign companies should be allowed to supply technology for critical infrastructure.

Australians are also wary of military cooperation with China. A minority of Australians (39%) support ‘conducting joint military exercises with China and other countries’. Since 2015, Australian and Chinese military officers have both participated in Exercise Pandaroo.^*

Eight in ten Australians (82%) would approve of the Australian government ‘imposing travel and financial sanctions on Chinese officials associated with human rights abuses’, suggesting that there may be significant public support for the inquiry the Australian parliament commenced in late 2019 investigating the use of targeted sanctions to address human rights abuses.^* This aligns with views previously expressed by Australians about the human rights situation in China: in 2019, only 27% of the country said Australia was doing enough to pressure China to improve human rights.

However, there are also areas where Australians support a cooperative relationship with China. More than half of Australians (59%) would support Australia ‘jointly funding aid projects with China in the Pacific and Asia’. In 2019, around three quarters of Australians (73%) said that Australia should try to prevent China from increasing its influence in the Pacific. More than half (55%) said that China opening a military base in a Pacific Islands country would pose a critical threat to the vital interests of Australia.

Eight in ten Australians support sanctions on Chinese officials associated with human rights abuses

As China’s growth has slowed, confidence about the trajectories of both the Australian and Chinese economies over the next five years has softened, and Australians are divided on whether the Chinese economy is growing or slowing. In 2020, around half (49%) say ‘China’s economy will slow down and the Australian economy will suffer’, an increase of five points from 2016.

A similar number (48%) say ‘China’s economy will continue to grow strongly and this will benefit Australia’. The view that China’s economy would continue to grow and benefit Australia was held by the majority of Australians (52%) in 2016.