Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
China: Australians warming again to China as economic partnerChina: Australians warming again to China as economic partner
The 2019–2022 period marked a low point in Australia–China relations. Beijing imposed punitive tariffs on Australian agricultural goods such as barley, wine, and beef in response to numerous decisions it regarded as antagonistic, including Australia’s call for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19. In 2021 and 2022, 63% of Australians viewed China more as a security threat than an economic partner — a record high for that measure.
The relationship began to stabilise in 2022. Prime Minister Albanese made his first official visit to China in November 2023, following an earlier visit by foreign minister Penny Wong. In 2023, the number of Australians who saw China more as a security threat than an economic partner slimmed to 52%. By 2025, Australians were more evenly split, with 47% saying they saw China more as a security threat, and 50% saying they saw the country more as an economic partner.
In this year’s Poll, a clear majority of Australians (61%) say they see China more as an economic partner than a security threat, an 11-point increase since 2025. This finding marks one of the largest swings in sentiment in this year’s Poll.
On Australia’s foreign policy towards China, Australians say they support firm positions on human rights and deterrence. A clear majority of Australians (62%) say we should be doing more to pressure China to improve human rights, while 28% say we should be doing ‘about the same’ as we are now. A smaller majority (54%) say we should be doing more to work with allies in deterring China’s use of military force, down six points from last year, while 34% say we should be doing ‘about the same’ as we are now.
Two-way trade between Australia and China reached $325 billion in 2025, making China Australia’s largest trading partner by a wide margin. This year’s Poll found strong support for the trade relationship, with significant numbers of Australians saying we should be trading with China ‘about the same’ as we are now (44%) or trading ‘more’ (33%). A minority (22%) say we should be trading ‘less’ with China.
Investment from China elicits lower levels of support. Only 22% of Australians say we should be attracting ‘more’ investment from China, while 28% say it should remain ‘about the same’ as it is now. Almost half of Australians (48%) say weshould attract ‘less’ investment from China.
During Prime Minister Albanese’s second official visit to China in July 2025, he and Chinese premier Li Qiang announced a new Policy Dialogue on Steel Decarbonisation. In October 2025, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen visited China for the Ninth Australia–China Ministerial Dialogue on Climate Change. The Australian public appears to back this diplomatic direction on climate. The vast majority of Australians (81%) support at least maintaining current levels of cooperation with China on climate change, with 51% saying we should cooperate ‘more’ and 30% saying levels of cooperation should remain ‘about the same’. Only 17% say we should cooperate less with China on climate change.
Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles has warned that China is undertaking the largest military build-up of any nation since the lead-up to the Second World War, with significant increases in the size of its navy, missile forces, and nuclear arsenal. Against this backdrop, a clear majority of Australians (62%) say it would be ‘somewhat likely’ or ‘very likely’ that China would be a military threat to Australia in 20 years, a seven-point drop from last year’s Poll and a 13-point drop from 2022 and 2023.
China’s president Xi Jinping has instructed his military to be ready to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the US Congress declared it would regard military action against Taiwan as ‘a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States’.
In the event of conflict between the two superpowers, Australians are largely supportive of providing assistance to Taiwan. Strong majorities say they would support accepting Taiwanese refugees into Australia (72%) and imposing diplomatic sanctions on China (69%). Smaller majorities say they would support sending arms and military supplies to Taiwan (61%) or deploying the Royal Australian Navy to help prevent China from imposing a blockade around Taiwan (60%).
Sending Australian military personnel to help defend Taiwan from China attracted the weakest support (44%) among Australians, with a slim majority (53%) saying they would ‘oppose’ such a deployment.
About the author
Charles Lyons-Jones
Charles Lyons-Jones is a Research Fellow in the Lowy Institute’s Foreign Policy and Public Opinion Program. He oversees the annual Lowy Institute Poll and the Global Diplomacy Index.
