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You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
About the authors
Lydia Khalil
Lydia Khalil is Program Director of the Transnational Challenges Program at the Lowy Institute.
Peter Woodrow
Peter Woodrow is a leading thinker in the application of systems thinking concepts and tools of context analysis and program design in peacebuilding, anti-corruption, and democratic backsliding.
James Paterson
Dr James Paterson is the Research Associate for the Transnational Challenges Program at the Lowy Institute.
Robert Kaufman
Robert Kaufman is Distinguished Professor Emeritus in Political Science at Rutgers University.
South Africa’s 1994 transition from apartheid to democracy carried extraordinary symbolic weight and drew historic voter turnout. Of the country’s 22.7 million adults at the time, more than 19 million voted. By 2024, the country’s 30th anniversary of democracy was overshadowed by deep political scepticism and disillusionment.
Much of this frustration stems from the failure of the African National Congress — the dominant political force since 1994 — to honour its founding democratic social contract. The ANC promised a “better life for all”, yet has struggled to address core socioeconomic challenges such as poor healthcare, inadequate housing, failing municipal services, persistent unemployment, and deepening inequality. For many, democracy delivered too few tangible improvements, while corruption and state capture took hold.
The Zondo Commission — the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into Allegations of State Capture — documented extensive corruption and a “deliberate attempt to weaken democratic processes and to shift political decision-making away from constitutional bodies” during the presidency of Jacob Zuma (2009–2018). Yet there was little accountability or redress, engendering a distrust in institutions and the political process.
The gap between the expectation of democracy and reality widened, resulting in extreme voter apathy. At the 2024 election, voter turnout dropped to a historic low. Only 16.2 million of roughly 27.7 million registered voters went to the polls — a turnout of around 58%, and barely 40% of the nearly 39.7 million eligible voters. Political apathy was particularly evident among young voters. Individuals aged 20–29 constituted just 16% of registered voters.
This disillusionment extends beyond the ANC to the idea of democracy itself. According to an Afrobarometer survey in 2024, only 43% of South Africans support democracy. This is an 11 percentage point decrease from the 2018 survey, and a significant decline from a peak of more than 70% in 2011.
Afrobarometer also found that only 65% believe elections are the best way to choose the country’s leaders, while 72% would forgo elections altogether in favour of an unelected but efficient government that delivers security, housing, and jobs. Together, these findings point to a marked erosion of confidence in the country’s political system.
Trust in institutions has followed the same downward trajectory. Human Sciences Research Council data shows confidence in parliament falling from 58% in 2004 to just 27% in 2023. Such figures reflect a broader pattern of democratic delegitimisation, rooted in the perceived failure of the ruling party to deliver the socioeconomic transformation envisioned in the Freedom Charter.
South Africa’s democratic backsliding is therefore best understood as a cumulative story of disappointment: political apathy deepening into mistrust, mistrust hardening into disengagement, and disengagement gradually hollowing out the foundations of a once-celebrated democratic project.