23 May 2023
Even under sanctions, Iran is expanding a network of friends
Membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation offers Iran the chance to consolidate markets.
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15 May 2023
China to the rescue, with peace plans for Saudi, Iran, Russia, Ukraine and Afghanistan – up to a point
These diplomatic gambits all carry a message. But conflict resolution isn’t necessarily the main one. -
28 Mar 2023
China trumpets the Saudi-Iran deal, yet much credit goes to Pakistan
A little-heralded meeting in Islamabad set the stage for two arch rivals to set aside differences. -
10 Mar 2023
A tenuous tourniquet: Iran’s nuclear program
Monitoring alone cannot overcome the reality that Iran’s capability remains potent, and a headache for the West. -
4 Jan 2023
The personal is political: Iran protests for a normal life
The regime has trampled not only women’s rights. An array of grievances makes everyone a leader of this struggle. -
29 Nov 2022
Iran: Deep state, shallow protests
In a case of better the devil you know, potential for the country’s current unrest to be regime-changing is low. -
29 Sep 2022
Iran protests: the more things change …
Iranians see demonstrations as a chance to register their voice – but that doesn’t mean the regime is about to topple. -
27 Sep 2022
After Mahsa Amini’s death, Iran protests signal a generational shift
The regime is struggling to contain demonstrations that demand nothing less than an end to the Islamic Republic. -
6 May 2022
Iran applies its own maximum pressure in nuclear talks
With negotiations seemingly deadlocked, the Biden administration’s hopes for a major foreign policy win appear dashed. -
28 Jan 2022
Iran banks on Beijing and Moscow, inviting painful historic parallels
A “Look East” policy favoured by hardliners in Tehran appears out of step with local sentiment and past experience. -
17 Sep 2021
China – a lonely superpower
Despite many countries having issues with the West, China has few obvious alliance candidates. -
13 Sep 2021
Iran’s energy diplomacy
Tehran knows its hand when it comes to playing the energy card across the region. -
4 Jun 2021
Narrowing the field in Iran’s election
For one name on the ballot papers, the presidency may be a stepping stone to greater office. -
13 Apr 2021
Iran-US-Israel: Boxing out of the shadows
Gradual progress in talks to revive the nuclear deal may be dealt a blow by a series of “grey-zone” attacks. -
15 Mar 2021
An oil spill nobody owns
A clandestine operation? Environmental terrorism? Israel and Iran both deny responsibility for a mysterious event. -
12 Mar 2021
Iran: Could Australia’s hostage diplomacy have been better?
A public campaign by Australia’s government to try to shame Iran into freeing Kylie Moore-Gilbert would not have worked. -
1 Feb 2021
Why Indonesia seizing an Iranian tanker is purely over domestic law
Jakarta’s control over archipelagic waters imposes special rights and responsibilities. -
20 Jan 2021
Iran nuclear deal: Revenge of the diplomats
Re-negotiations with Tehran will be a fascinating guide to how a Biden administration deals with Middle East challenges. -
2 Dec 2020
Al-Qaeda: The core problem
The killing of senior terrorist Abu Mohammed al-Masri on a Tehran street raises questions about al-Qaeda’s ties to Iran. -
30 Nov 2020
The fallout of assassinating Mohsen Fakhrizadeh
The killing of the head of the Iranian nuclear program may make it even harder to revive the nuclear deal. -
6 Nov 2020
Iran’s year of reckoning
The #MeToo movement is gaining traction in Iran, but its impact is unlikely to alter the status quo in the short term. -
16 Oct 2020
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Increasingly deadly and destabilising
An eruption of bitter fighting in a seemingly intractable conflict is aggravating wider regional tensions. -
14 Oct 2020
Afghanistan and Iran: From water treaty to water dispute
A dam near completion on the Helmand River in Afghanistan is at the centre of a disagreement over water rights. -
8 Oct 2020
Iran’s declining regional influence
Tehran capitalised on US mistakes in the Middle East, but its proxy wars and consistently aggressive façade have a cost. -
2 Sep 2020
A China-Iran bilateral deal: Costs all around
Beijing sees an opportunity in Tehran’s international isolation – but may not realise the tangle it is entering. -
28 Aug 2020
A diplomatic breakdown over “snapback” tests the UN
Dispute over a US call for pre-2015 Iran sanctions has pushed the Security Council to its limit. It’s been there before. -
21 Aug 2020
Hidden seams in the UAE-Israel deal
It’s all about Iran, right? Actually, the agreement has more to do with managing the US and China. -
17 Aug 2020
The essence of timing in politics
The UAE earned goodwill for a deal with Israel, but the US is still struggling to win backers for its hard line on Iran. -
28 Jul 2020
UN report on US killing of Iranian commander misses the mark
The drone strike on Qasem Soleimani was unlawful, the report finds, but weak analysis undercuts its conclusion. -
9 Jul 2020
Cashing in the chips at the Trump casino
The prospect of a Biden administration has pro-US leaders in the Middle East seeking to keep their political “winnings”. -
11 May 2020
Denials, delays, and conspiracy theories: Iran’s Covid mismanagement
The crisis reveals fundamental failures: a politicised health system, multiple power centres, and no respect for law. -
18 Mar 2020
Iran: Sanctions vs sympathy
The US policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran will look increasingly untenable as the coronavirus pandemic escalates. -
28 Jan 2020
Q&A: Jason Rezaian on Kylie Moore-Gilbert’s nightmare in Iran
The American journalist – also once a prisoner in Tehran – wants Australia to push to end Iran’s state hostage-taking. -
24 Jan 2020
Russia makes its presence known in Iran crisis
Through military and diplomatic manoeuvres, Russia has signalled its stance on further US intervention in the region. -
22 Jan 2020
The Kurds are again caught in the crossfire, now between US and Iran
Yet the Kurds may gamble to play the two adversaries off against each other to finally achieve an independent state. -
16 Jan 2020
The impact of accuracy
Iran’s demonstration in last’s week strike at US bases will have effects around the world. -
14 Jan 2020
In Tehran, a tragic error threatens political wreckage
As questions around the Flight 752 disaster persist, Iranian politicians seek cover. -
13 Jan 2020
Trump walks away clean from Soleimani fallout
Doubts over legality and intelligence (and impeachment) didn't keep the US president from claiming a big win. -
9 Jan 2020
Could Afghanistan be the stage for US-Iran conflict?
If Tehran pursues further retaliation for the US strike on a top commander, its neighbour to the east is an easy mark. -
8 Jan 2020
Ending Iran’s regional ransom
Tehran may further strike back over Soleimani, but it has freely carried out attacks across the region for a long time. -
7 Jan 2020
“Maximum pressure” demands diplomatic off-ramps
For the US, escalation and de-escalation with Iran and North Korea require greater international coordination. -
6 Jan 2020
Trump’s unpredictability confounds his allies, and now his enemies
The hit on Qasem Soleimani has fundamentally changed the rules of the game between the US and Iran. -
6 Jan 2020
Will Trump win big from killing Soleimani?
It’s not clear how Iran for all its bluster of revenge will be able to hit back at the US. -
11 Dec 2019
Iran: When maximum pressure collides with indefinite defiance
After a bad month, the regime in Tehran might be floundering, but it is far from falling. -
10 Dec 2019
When price hikes pour fuel on the fire
The recent protests in Iran illustrate the cost of ignoring the vulnerability of the poor. -
21 Nov 2019
How the regime extinguishes Iran’s “Petroleum Protests”
The most damaging unrest since the 1979 revolution lacks leadership or popular support, so appears doomed to fail. -
18 Nov 2019
Shifting alliances in the Gulf a boon to China
Iran’s offer to connect Chabahar port to Pakistan’s Gwadar will frustrate India but might also encourage China. -
19 Sep 2019
What Iran’s hardliners stand to gain from the Abqaiq attack
If Tehran gave the green light to a strike in Saudi Arabia, why now, just as a Trump-Rouhani meeting seemed possible? -
17 Sep 2019
Raising the stakes in the Gulf’s game of reprisals
With global energy markets rattled, the tit-for-tat exchanges have reached a new level. -
3 Sep 2019
How the US keeps priority boarding ahead of Iran at the United Nations
If Iran’s Foreign Minister wants to speak at UN headquarters in New York, is the US obliged to issue him a visa?