11 Apr 2025
Why Oman? Explaining the choice of venue for US-Iran talks
Oman’s skill as a facilitator has been fine-tuned over decades – not that many know.
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6 Dec 2024
Hans Blix: The arms control Einstein who turned 96 this year
A consensus-builder who believes nuclear weapons are never in safe hands, no matter who holds them. -
21 Nov 2024
Cat-astrophe! What happens when dirty-minded North Koreans meet Iranian nuclear purrfidy
I spy an invisible cat. Two, in fact. -
15 Nov 2024
What does Trump’s return mean for America’s relations with Russia?
Whatever happens over the next four years, the underlying causes of Russia–US confrontation won’t go away. -
8 Oct 2024
When the friendly skies above go dark, rockets light up
How airspace closures signal the geopolitical strategies unfolding in the Middle East. -
7 Oct 2024
Trump would put personality over policy in the Middle East
Donald Trump’s overarching impulse towards the Middle East can be boiled down to: look strong, but don’t do too much. -
12 Sep 2024
What Iranians want for their country
It takes a vibrant civil society to stand up to the establishment. -
6 Sep 2024
Iran’s shadow hand in Houthi Red Sea attacks
How the Houthis and Iranians work together isn’t absolutely clear – but stopping the threat to shipping requires more than shooting down incoming missiles and extends to disrupting an intelligence and targeting system. -
7 Aug 2024
China’s high-stakes diplomacy: Managing Middle Eastern turmoil
Will Beijing exert more effort to calm the region and protect its economic interests and credibility? -
23 Jul 2024
The curious international silence about Iran’s new reformist president
A surprise victory in elections hasn’t raised international hopes of change, even if that was the message Iranian people intended to send at the ballot box. -
18 Jul 2024
IRGC Navy flexes its long-range threat capability
Converted container ships might not last long in a hot war, but could vastly expand the range of trouble that Iran seeks to stir. -
8 Jul 2024
Diplomacy at a funeral
Recent deaths of world leaders have highlighted that international relations can take place at unexpected venues. -
2 Jul 2024
Pariah states and the Olympic Games
With the Paris Games only weeks away, the controversy around athletes from “rogue” countries is set to intensify. -
21 May 2024
Iran: Consequences of the vacant presidency
While continuity in foreign policy is likely, tension between state and society could be further exacerbated by competition within the conservative camp. -
30 Apr 2024
Trouble together: How North Korea sees its growing interests with Iran
Global isolation is building ties that bind. Better to engage and take away the incentive. -
17 Apr 2024
Iran-Israel: The escalation calculus
Iran’s weekend strike against Israel was thwarted, but how should we calculate its impacts? -
5 Apr 2024
Pakistan: The dangerous reality of working on China’s megaprojects
A spate of deadly insurgent attacks on Chinese nationals sends a message about vulnerability. -
8 Feb 2024
Non-state actors and the phantom of asymmetry
The might of the US military no longer guarantees world order. There are new actors and new ecosystems in play. -
30 Jan 2024
An Iranian trap in Yemen
Washington was wise to delay its retaliation against the Houthis given the regional history with unintended consequences. -
20 Nov 2023
The war in Gaza has not destroyed normalisation … for now
Despite deepening hostilities, common strategic interests still bind Israel and most of the Arab states. -
1 Nov 2023
History repeats: A new (old) economic corridor emerges
Renewed connectivity between India, the Middle East and Europe shows how maps are temporary, but geography persists. -
26 Sep 2023
Israel and Saudi Arabia: Finally, a New Middle East?
A deal with the Middle East’s two most significant powers could transform the volatile region, but the stakes are high. -
9 Aug 2023
Iran’s lithium lode: A potential strategic game-changer
Australia might find itself on a political and economic tightrope as China looks to diversify its options for the new oil of our times. -
31 May 2023
Reviving hope in Iran: Why the “Woman Life Freedom” movement lives on
Iran is again undergoing a revolution and joy, once sparked, will not be extinguished. -
23 May 2023
Even under sanctions, Iran is expanding a network of friends
Membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation offers Iran the chance to consolidate markets. -
15 May 2023
China to the rescue, with peace plans for Saudi, Iran, Russia, Ukraine and Afghanistan – up to a point
These diplomatic gambits all carry a message. But conflict resolution isn’t necessarily the main one. -
28 Mar 2023
China trumpets the Saudi-Iran deal, yet much credit goes to Pakistan
A little-heralded meeting in Islamabad set the stage for two arch rivals to set aside differences. -
10 Mar 2023
A tenuous tourniquet: Iran’s nuclear program
Monitoring alone cannot overcome the reality that Iran’s capability remains potent, and a headache for the West. -
4 Jan 2023
The personal is political: Iran protests for a normal life
The regime has trampled not only women’s rights. An array of grievances makes everyone a leader of this struggle. -
29 Nov 2022
Iran: Deep state, shallow protests
In a case of better the devil you know, potential for the country’s current unrest to be regime-changing is low. -
29 Sep 2022
Iran protests: the more things change …
Iranians see demonstrations as a chance to register their voice – but that doesn’t mean the regime is about to topple. -
27 Sep 2022
After Mahsa Amini’s death, Iran protests signal a generational shift
The regime is struggling to contain demonstrations that demand nothing less than an end to the Islamic Republic. -
6 May 2022
Iran applies its own maximum pressure in nuclear talks
With negotiations seemingly deadlocked, the Biden administration’s hopes for a major foreign policy win appear dashed. -
28 Jan 2022
Iran banks on Beijing and Moscow, inviting painful historic parallels
A “Look East” policy favoured by hardliners in Tehran appears out of step with local sentiment and past experience. -
17 Sep 2021
China – a lonely superpower
Despite many countries having issues with the West, China has few obvious alliance candidates. -
13 Sep 2021
Iran’s energy diplomacy
Tehran knows its hand when it comes to playing the energy card across the region. -
4 Jun 2021
Narrowing the field in Iran’s election
For one name on the ballot papers, the presidency may be a stepping stone to greater office. -
13 Apr 2021
Iran-US-Israel: Boxing out of the shadows
Gradual progress in talks to revive the nuclear deal may be dealt a blow by a series of “grey-zone” attacks. -
15 Mar 2021
An oil spill nobody owns
A clandestine operation? Environmental terrorism? Israel and Iran both deny responsibility for a mysterious event. -
12 Mar 2021
Iran: Could Australia’s hostage diplomacy have been better?
A public campaign by Australia’s government to try to shame Iran into freeing Kylie Moore-Gilbert would not have worked. -
1 Feb 2021
Why Indonesia seizing an Iranian tanker is purely over domestic law
Jakarta’s control over archipelagic waters imposes special rights and responsibilities. -
20 Jan 2021
Iran nuclear deal: Revenge of the diplomats
Re-negotiations with Tehran will be a fascinating guide to how a Biden administration deals with Middle East challenges. -
2 Dec 2020
Al-Qaeda: The core problem
The killing of senior terrorist Abu Mohammed al-Masri on a Tehran street raises questions about al-Qaeda’s ties to Iran. -
30 Nov 2020
The fallout of assassinating Mohsen Fakhrizadeh
The killing of the head of the Iranian nuclear program may make it even harder to revive the nuclear deal. -
6 Nov 2020
Iran’s year of reckoning
The #MeToo movement is gaining traction in Iran, but its impact is unlikely to alter the status quo in the short term. -
16 Oct 2020
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Increasingly deadly and destabilising
An eruption of bitter fighting in a seemingly intractable conflict is aggravating wider regional tensions. -
14 Oct 2020
Afghanistan and Iran: From water treaty to water dispute
A dam near completion on the Helmand River in Afghanistan is at the centre of a disagreement over water rights. -
8 Oct 2020
Iran’s declining regional influence
Tehran capitalised on US mistakes in the Middle East, but its proxy wars and consistently aggressive façade have a cost. -
2 Sep 2020
A China-Iran bilateral deal: Costs all around
Beijing sees an opportunity in Tehran’s international isolation – but may not realise the tangle it is entering.