Australia, explained.
US President Donald Trump has dispensed with the notion of values in American foreign policy, and notions of loyalty or “mateship” no longer hold currency (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
The 2025 Lowy Institute Poll illustrates the areas of contention and convergence in a longstanding alliance.
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Australia-United States: How to disagree with a superpowerAustralia-United States: How to disagree with a superpower
Three years ago, having seen Australia subjected to a long campaign of Chinese economic coercion and trade blockages, the newly elected Labor government adopted a phrase to describe its approach to the Asian superpower: “cooperate where we can, disagree where we must, and engage in the national interest”.
The approach captured by those words has framed Australia’s relationship with its largest trading partner ever since. It reflects a high degree of caution, given China’s military assertiveness and human rights record, as well as the reality that no country can ignore China if it wants to continue to grow economically, transition its energy supply, or prevent the next pandemic.
Today, Australia again faces unjustified tariffs from a superpower. But this time, it is Australia’s principal ally that is wielding the stick.
Australia would do well to apply the same pragmatic approach to the United States – a country that remains pivotal to many of its interests, but also one with which Australia finds itself increasingly at odds.
Even as the United States drifts further from its historical expression of national principles, Australia does not have the luxury of disengaging.
The recently released 2025 Lowy Institute Poll suggests many Australians already look to the United States with a good measure of pragmatism.
With Donald Trump in the White House, only 36% of Australians trust America to act responsibly – a 20-point drop since last year and the lowest level in two decades.
Despite this, the vast majority (80 per cent) continue to view the US alliance as important to Australia’s security. And more Australians think the country should remain close to the United States under Trump (57 per cent) than those who think it should distance itself (40 per cent).
The question is: where must Australia disagree, and where should it continue to cooperate with America?
Many of Trump’s actions directly undermine the rules-based order under which Australia has prospered.
Of all the policies tested in the Lowy Institute Poll, Australians were most disapproving of Trump’s attempts to acquire Greenland (89 per cent), an objective he has repeatedly refused to rule out using force to achieve.
As the purported leader of the free world, publicly flirting with territorial expansion at the expense of smaller powers undercuts a fundamental prohibition on the threat or use of force, as well as allies’ arguments against respective Russian and Chinese designs on Ukraine and Taiwan.
Trump’s decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities in the absence of an imminent threat to the United States has again ignited concerns about eroding constraints on the use of force – whatever the merit of the objectives, how they are achieved matters, as do the consequences such actions could unleash in the Middle East.
On Ukraine, Trump has blamed the war on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, shown sympathy for Vladimir Putin, haphazardly sought a peace agreement at Ukraine’s expense, and voted with Russia against European allies on UN resolutions on the matter.
Australians, on the other hand, continue to stand firmly against Russia’s aggression. Australia can and should do more: a strong majority back continued sanctions on Moscow (84 per cent), providing military aid to Ukraine (73 per cent), and participating in a potential European-led peacekeeping mission (71 per cent).
On trade, the divergences are sharp. A vast majority of Australians (81 per cent) disapprove of Trump’s use of tariffs to pressure other countries. Beyond seeking exemptions from US tariffs, Australia must continue to champion the cause of open, rules-based trade – a system it has long prospered from.
On climate change, the positions are hard to reconcile. Trump is an ardent climate denialist and has ordered America’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. By contrast, the Albanese government is bidding to host next year’s UN climate summit with Pacific nations – an initiative that carries strong public support (70 per cent). If Australia secures the hosting rights, it will find itself leading global climate action when the United States – the world’s second largest emitter – is backtracking on its commitments.
If we believe US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s recent speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, deterring Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific remains a top priority for the US administration.
A majority of Australians agree. Seven in ten think it likely China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years, while 60 per cent think Australia should do more to deter China militarily.
But there are mixed signals here, too. With the Pentagon conducting a review into AUKUS, some believe a program for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines – which two-thirds of Australians favour – is now at risk.
The United States has also called on Australia, among other allies, to significantly bolster its defence spending. Half of the public (51 per cent) think Australia should increase its defence budget.
Yet, while allies scramble to respond to US pressure on spending, a fundamental question lies unanswered: does America have the resolve and focus to continue leading deterrence against Chinese aggression? If China sought to take Taiwan by force, few analysts are confident that Trump would put US troops into the fray.
Closer to home, Australians remain somewhat optimistic – 63 per cent think that if Australia were attacked, the United States would come to its defence.
Clearly, Trump has dispensed with the notion of values in American foreign policy. Notions of loyalty or “mateship” no longer hold currency.
But even as the United States drifts further from its historical expression of national principles, Australia does not have the luxury of disengaging. It should continue to seek cooperation, both on mutual economic interests and the common cause of deterring armed conflict in Asia.
At the same time, Australia’s leaders must be ready to stand their ground, including on global security, open trade, climate action, and the preservation of the rules-based order.
Australians expect nothing less.
About the author
Ryan Neelam
Ryan Neelam was Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute. He led the flagship annual Lowy Institute Poll, was project director for the Global Diplomacy Index, and wrote about climate diplomacy and multilateral policy.
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