Defence & security, explained.
A Ukrainian anti-aircraft drone operator remotely controls a drone via his headset from a shelter in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 29 May 2025 (Maks Muravsky/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
The economics of traditional air defence systems are being tested in Russia’s war on Ukraine.
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Bang for buck: Why Kyiv is rushing to scale drone interceptorsBang for buck: Why Kyiv is rushing to scale drone interceptors
It took Russia a few years, but once Moscow was able to shift its war machine and gradually learn lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian war, it was able to rapidly scale production of its drones. With President Vladimir Putin frustrated by a stalled summer offensive, his focus has turned to breaking Western and Ukrainian morale with barrages of drone strikes at civilian targets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that in the last week alone, Russia has launched more than 1,800 long-range drones against his country. Now, even cities far from the front such as Lutsk and Lviv are actively under attack.
The Institute for the Study of War highlighted that the drone attacks are meant to psychologically exhaust Ukraine and erode Western support. To complicate Kyiv’s response, Russia has also made use of Belarus’ airspace to launch the attacks. In this ecosystem, the economics of air defence systems are rapidly being transformed, and the next frontier in this technological race is drone interceptors.
While effective against ballistic missiles, using multi-million-dollar Patriot interceptors to shoot down drones worth only tens of thousands of dollars is economically unsustainable.
Patriot systems remain a top priority for defending Ukrainian cities, but their high cost and scarcity has made both the United States and Europe cautious about supplying them in large numbers. While effective against ballistic missiles, using multi-million-dollar Patriot interceptors to shoot down drones worth only tens of thousands of dollars is economically unsustainable, especially as Russia launches drone swarms by the hundreds each night.
In an interview with the author, Roy Gardiner, an open-source weapons expert, stated: “High speed interceptors are of tremendous importance to Ukraine as Shahed [unmanned aerial vehicle] production is up to 90 a day and expected to increase, and Shaheds now fly too high for ground fire to reach 3–4 kilometres.”
Once vulnerable to practical solutions such as truck-mounted guns, today’s Shahed drones fly higher and faster, diving from more than 2,500 metres with upgraded warheads and jam-resistant navigation, making them nearly impossible for Ukraine’s older defences to stop. In the first half of July alone, Russia launched more than 4,000 drones across Ukraine.
Military assistance from NATO member states and direct investment in the domestic production of long-range drones has allowed Ukraine to increase its use of the weapons (President of Ukraine/Flickr)
With traditional air defence systems running low on missiles and limited domestic production capacity, Ukraine is turning to $5,000 interceptor drones and domestically built autonomous interceptor drones that have already downed dozens of Russian Shaheds.
Ukraine’s Clear Sky project, launched to protect Kyiv by using domestically produced interceptor drones, shot down nearly 550 Russian drones during testing and is part of a broader plan to train operators and deploy mobile defence units across the capital.
Ukraine has reportedly already contracted tens of thousands of interceptor drones, which are now in mass production. It is also scaling production through international partnerships. A new agreement with the US company Swift Beat will prioritise delivery of hundreds of thousands of interceptor and strike drones under cost-price terms, with plans to develop systems to also counter cruise and ballistic missiles.
Nevertheless, domestic producers continue to innovate very quickly. One example of Ukraine’s homegrown solutions is the newly deployed ODIN Antishaheed system, designed specifically to counter kamikaze drones such as the Shahed-136. Armed with high-speed Win Hit interceptors that reach up to 300 kilometres per hour, the system has already proven effective on the front lines and is being integrated into combat brigades. Charitable foundations such as Come Back Alive and Wild Hornets are also at the forefront of developing scalable air defence solutions using interceptor drones.
For Ukraine to keep pace with Russia’s growing volume of drone attacks, interceptor systems will need to become increasingly autonomous. “Interceptors are more effective when they’re autonomous,” said Lyuba Shipovich, CEO of Dignitas, which helps train Ukrainian soldiers on drone defence systems such as the interceptors. “You can’t expect to have 700 operators for 700 drones during a mass strike like the ones we’re seeing now. AI allows us to launch swarms of interceptor drones without that limitation.”
As Russia’s war effort stalls, Putin is betting on mass drone production to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences and wear down resistance.
Russia is also adapting its drones in response. “Some of their drones have rear-facing cameras and will swerve or weave when they detect an incoming Ukrainian interceptor,” Shipovich explained. “That makes it much harder for human operators to stay on target. So part of the goal is to train the AI to recognise and adapt to these Russian countermeasures in real time.”
It’s much more efficient to intercept drones with drones than using expensive air defence systems,” she said. “You shouldn’t have to spend millions to take down a drone that costs a few tens of thousands.”
Artificial intelligence is also proving to be increasingly accurate in identifying specific drone types, including decoys such as Russian Gerans, which are essentially rebadged Iranian-made Shaheds. But Russia is already adjusting its tactics. “Another system Russia has used is an EW [electronic warfare] system that detects the video signal of an interceptor FPV [first-person view], and automatically initiates a stronger jamming signal in that frequency,” said Gardiner.
Ukraine’s Air Force also released new footage showing its German-made Skynex air defence system successfully shooting down multiple Russian Shahed-type drones, highlighting the system’s precision and growing role in protecting Ukrainian skies. With only two Skynex systems currently in use worldwide – both deployed in Ukraine – their effectiveness shows the need for more air defence systems to be developed.
As Russia’s war effort stalls, Putin is betting on mass drone production to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences and wear down resistance. Kyiv must urgently scale its interceptor drone capabilities and stay ahead technologically. This also offers an important warning to Western partners: expensive legacy systems won’t be able to scale fast enough in the face of a large-scale drone assault on their own cities.
About the author
David Kirichenko
David Kirichenko is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.
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