For the first time in 50 years, Syrians are free of the rule of the Assad family. After a string of stunning advances, opposition forces took control of Damascus on Sunday, as Bashar al-Assad boarded a plane for Russia and sought asylum from Moscow.
Syrians are celebrating the demise of a tyrant, with reports that many who fled the long-running war are already speaking of returning. As opposition forces, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), moved on Damascus, the depravity of the regime was further illuminated with the capture of the notorious Sednaya prison, from which numerous political prisoners were freed.
While the Syrian conflict dragged on for over a decade, the end came quickly for a regime that has ruled with an iron fist. The rebels’ lightning advance was made possible because many regime forces simply abandoned their posts. The geopolitical ground had also shifted as Assad’s main supporters, Russia, Iran and Iran-backed Hezbollah, all weakened by other conflicts, proved unable – or unwilling – to come to his aid.
The ousting of a dictator is always cause for celebration. But other such episodes in Iran in 1979 and more recently in Iraq and Libya did not set happy precedents.
The end of the Assad era was marked by the victory speech in the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus of Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, leader of HTS, whose forces had pushed south from Aleppo. Also participating in the march on Damascus was a separate coalition of forces that had taken the southern city of Daraa, meanwhile the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) captured Deir ez-Zor in the east.
Despite the ouster of Assad, Syria remains divided, with control split between several opposition groups. Therein lies the danger. Throughout the war, numerous rebel militias arose. While they all sought to remove Assad, they shared little in terms of political objectives or visions for Syria’s future.
The ousting of a dictator is always cause for celebration. UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen has noted this moment as one that offers hope for a brighter future. But other such episodes in Iran in 1979 and more recently in Iraq and Libya did not set happy precedents.
The mood may be jubilant across Syria, but there are worrying signs, with reports of looting in Damascus, and conflicting erupting between rebel groups as the Türkiye-backed Syrian National Army turned its guns upon SDF positions in Manbij, on the western bank of the Euphrates.
There are also international misgivings about HTS, a group with an Islamist background, once linked with al-Qaeda, and designated a terrorist organisation by the United States and the United Nations. Since 2020, based in a self-governing border enclave in Idlib, HTS has sought to reform its reputation, rooting out ISIS and al-Qaeda operatives, and forging a new relationship with the West. In a 2021 interview, HTS leader Jolani lamented its categorisation as a terrorist group and although acknowledging it sought an Islamist political model stated it would not be like that of “ISIS or even Saudi Arabia.”
HTS has also worked to build institutions and governance structures, as well as alliances with local political actors, which contributed to its successful march on Damascus. After taking Aleppo last week, HTS sought to reassure Syrian minorities, including Kurds and Alawis. But what role HTS plays in Syria’s future and what shape its rule might take remain unclear. In his speech in Damascus Jolani claimed victory “for the entire Islamic nation,” thus did not acknowledge Syria’s diverse religious communities.
Tellingly, he also heralded an end to Syria’s experience as a “playground for Iranian ambitions”. This may be one of the biggest impacts of recent events. Iran has long been Assad’s sole ally in the Arab world, and during the Syrian conflict Tehran has been able to exercise increased influence over Damascus and power further throughout the region. With Assad gone, Iran has lost a pillar of its “Axis of Resistance” while also losing access to its main proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. Russia, too, loses a key Middle Eastern ally.
As Iran and Russia retreat, Türkiye is set to expand its influence. Türkiye has long been a centre of the Syrian resistance, and it has extended its footprint in its southern neighbour in a series of interventions since 2016. Some argue that the rebels’ recent push against Aleppo was only possible with Türkiye’s approval. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan notes that Ankara is in contact with rebel forces and has urged all parties to work together to an orderly transition.
Türkiye will be glad to see the back of Assad – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan antipathy towards him was no secret – but its next strategic priority will be curbing the influence and reach of the Kurdish-led SDF, which controls territory east of the Euphrates. Despite the vital role the SDF played in the defeat of ISIS, Türkiye classifies it a terrorist organisation due to its links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, and it has repeatedly targeted infrastructure and military installations in SDF territory.
For their part, the SDF state they are in contact with HTS, and despite concerns their divergent political goals may lead to conflict, relations remain peaceful thus far. Meanwhile, Sinam Mohamad, SDF envoy in the US, has urged Washington to maintain its support, which includes a small military presence in northeast Syria, and forestall further Turkish encroachment.
Ultimately, the Assad era is definitively over, but what lies ahead for Syria and Syrians remains uncertain.
