Many an eyebrow had raised both in Canada and internationally when US President-elect Donald Trump chose Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the first G7 leader to meet in person after the November election. During Trump’s first term, the pair weren’t exactly known to have the best relationship, and they were far from ideologically aligned.
In a way, Trudeau had also become a scapegoat and an object of fun for Trump’s MAGA movement. Trump had also called Trudeau “two-faced” and “a far-left lunatic” in the past. Elon Musk, the business tycoon and Trump’s close advisor, most recently referred to Trudeau as “girl”.
In retrospect, while Trudeau’s reign was drawing to an inevitable end, Trump’s invite may have proved a trojan horse. Trudeau’s resignation this week was mostly the result of an internal political struggle inside his own party. However, the looming economic and political threat coming out of Washington, with Trump threatening major tariffs, undoubtedly contributed to the instability, and it was noted in former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation letter that ultimately led to Trudeau’s demise.
Trump’s repeated threat to annex Canada following his Mar-a-Lago meeting with the Canadian leader certainly did not help Trudeau’s image inside the country, either. Trudeau was already in a standoff with India’s Narendra Modi over allegations Indian agents had backed an assassination in Canada. He’d also had an infamous earlier run-in with China’s Xi Jinping.
Trump and his protégés are also intensifying their meddling in other countries’ internal affairs, Canada being the first – but likely not the last.
If Trudeau’s fall was unavoidable, with his approval rating at a historic low after more than nine years in office, the timing of his resignation on 6 January couldn’t have been worse for the country. Canada will likely be under a caretaker prime minister during Trump’s first 100 days. Trump and his allies appear to be already taking advantage of the power vacuum left by Trudeau’s quitting by intensifying their calls to make Canada the 51st state through economic means and by meddling in the country’s internal political affairs by supporting a more like-minded candidate, the conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre.
In December, Léger, a market research firm in Canada, found just 13 per cent of respondents said they would like to become the 51st state – while 82 per cent rejected it. Trump could be using this absurd but scary idea to get something else in return, most likely better economic terms in its trade relationship with Canada.
However, what is clear is that navigating the incoming administration’s 25 per cent tariff threat while figuring out the country’s political future will likely be a significant challenge for Canada. The next four years for US-Canada relationship will be bumpy.
Following Trump’s statement that he would use an economic force to annex Canada, most high-level politicians in the great white north, including Poilievre, pushed back and made it clear Ottawa would never do such a thing. Canadian journalist and political commentator Chantal Hebert said the social media spat between Trump and many Canadian political figures marked the beginning of a new era in the US-Canada relationship, as rarely in modern history have Canadian politicians and a US president sparred so publicly.
As the saying goes, when the US sneezes, Canada catches a cold.
Trump and his protégés are also intensifying their meddling in other countries’ internal affairs, Canada being the first – but likely not the last – impacted by it. Musk recently supported the far-right party in Germany ahead of a key election and suggested the US should “liberate” the United Kingdom from their “tyrannical” government.
In Canada, Musk has already expressed his appreciation for Poilievre following an interview the politician did with Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson, a right-wing darling and a Daily Wire partner. Trump said this week that Poilievre “maybe won’t win, but maybe he will”, perhaps reflecting that Poilievre has been flirting with Trumpism while keeping a safe distance from Trump’s team. Poilievre was initially against abortion but changed his stance shortly before becoming party leader and is in favour of same-sex marriage. Still, Poilievre is the closest ideological ally who can realistically get elected in Canada for Trump, and Trump’s team appears to understand that.
As the saying goes, when the US sneezes, Canada catches a cold. The relationship between Canada and the US has long been one of the two countries’ most important ones – interlinked, interrelated, and interdependent. Canada’s elections are due this year on or before 20 October, so Trump will loom large in the campaign. Canadians have long been concerned about what has been happening south of the border, and while the country has survived the shake-up of the first Trump administration, it will need political stability to get through the second one.
Canada’s ability to independently choose its leader and its future and Washington’s respect for the two nations’ longstanding and independent relationship appears to be the country’s most basic need for the moment – one that many Canadians feel should not be questioned by their country’s closest ally.
