ASEAN, explained.
Four clocks structure the contest: political, operational, industrial, and narrative (Donald Wu/Unsplash)
From the South China Sea to the battlefields in Ukraine, negotiations that never end can give a false sense of stability.
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
Delay as a weapon: Fighting – and winning – on the clockDelay as a weapon: Fighting – and winning – on the clock
For more than two decades – since the 1990s, when first floated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) has inched forward through communiqués and milestones but no binding rules. Each step normalises the absence of constraint. Presence patrols continue while diplomats steward process, not outcomes.
This is not drift. It is design. In a region where missiles and ships dominate headlines, time is the quieter weapon: by pacing meetings and rationing concessions, actors tilt the field. Small deferrals compound into real gains. If time is contested terrain, whoever scripts the calendar can future-proof outcomes.
Temporal coercion pursues the same goals as kinetic coercion but uses duration as the instrument. Rather than inflicting damage directly, it creates costs through exhaustion, opportunity loss, and narrative erosion. As Thomas Schelling argued, coercion threatens future pain. Temporal coercion, therefore, makes holding firm more costly over time for the target, especially when its capacity for adaptation and relief is depleted. Edward Luttwak’s paradoxical logic of strategy also applies: doing less can coerce more when delay compounds pressure on an opponent.
Four clocks structure the contest: political (elections, budgets), operational (readiness, rotations, repair), industrial (production rates, delivery lead times), and narrative (talks, legal rulings, propaganda).
Different clocks or calendars create vulnerabilities and authoritarian patience can be as dangerous as authoritarian power.
When constant postponement is normalised, leaders can start believing the situation is stable simply because nothing dramatic is happening. In reality, things are stuck until a crisis exposes the risks that built up while the status quo felt safe. In the South China Sea, China crafted a new normal across decades: negotiations that never quite conclude, patrol rhythms that settle into new baselines, and lawfare timetables that withstand pushback.
North Korea offers another example. It draws out talks to gain concessions and time for its weapons programs, then punctuates lulls with tests to reset bargaining conditions. Each cycle ends with Pyongyang better armed and deeper entrenchment of a nuclear-here-to-stay narrative. The point isn’t that diplomacy fails, but that when delay is cheap, it finances the very programs negotiations aim to restrain.
On the India–China frontier, talks have been upgraded from corps commander to lieutenant-general level, but they run on a political clock while posture and infrastructure changes move on an operational one. Between rounds of talks, both sides use the time to adjust patrols and forward positions; talks ease tensions but seldom reverse changes to facts on the ground, a reminder that patience is pressure.
Beyond Asia, Russia has stretched cease-fire talks to buy time and solidify gains on the ground against Ukraine. Negotiations can ease diplomatic pressure while a war of attrition banks changes on the ground that are difficult to reverse – proof that outcomes accrue over time, not single decisive moments.
Joint exercises this month involving US, Philippines, Canadian and Japanese warships in the South China Sea (US Navy Photo)
Why does delay work? First, the politics of time. Public attention decays, but it decays at different rates in open societies and centralised systems. In open societies, competing narratives and shifting priorities can weaken national will. In centralised systems, propaganda and other forms of information control can sustain messages long-term. China exploits that asymmetry by staging patience as a virtue – claiming the moral high ground and daring others to blink first. That produces a credibility trap for open societies: accept delay and look weak, or force a deadline and own the rupture. Long games carry costs for China too – slower economic growth and demographic decline narrow Beijing’s window for patience. Partners, meanwhile, gain time to align budgets, access agreements, and exercise calendars so responses land together rather than piecemeal.
Second, the operational grind. As standoffs drag, practical limits do the work: crew rest, maintenance backlogs, resupply intervals, sortie scheduling, and seasonal weather narrow what is possible. Delays shift leverage from the conference table to these constraints, tightening choices even when, to the untrained eye, the issue seems unchanged.
If delay is a weapon, countermeasures must target time. Expanded US–Philippines access under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement and strengthened US–Japan military cooperation show how alliances can compress timelines, extend presence windows, and narrow gaps China might otherwise exploit. Endurance comes from logistics that lower daily operating costs, ready reserves that can surge quickly, and decision processes that outpace the opponent. Coalitions can rotate forces to sustain continuous presence and build time-bound arrangements that shift costs of delay back to the staller.
Policymakers should not rush to add “time” as a new domain alongside land, sea, air, cyber, and space. They must, however, recognise how different clocks or calendars create vulnerabilities and how authoritarian patience can be as dangerous as authoritarian power. Strategy becomes strategic time design, creating sequences that deny the opponent easy delay while keeping one’s own costs bearable. The calendar, like geography, can be contested or conceded. The side that shapes delay on its own terms will shape outcomes.
Delay is not neutral – it can be a weapon. Call it what it is and plan against it, or you will fight on their schedule and lose on yours. For ongoing issues such as the COC, the warning is plain: unless time itself is treated as contested ground, the waiting will decide the outcome.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the US Department of Defense or the US Government.
About the author
Henry Yep
Henry Yep is a senior intelligence officer and a China specialist with 20 years of experience at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
