Russia, explained.
Russia has a rumoured history of silencing medical practitioners and lab workers who report problems (Wilhelm Gunkel/Unsplash)
What really killed a young researcher in Siberia remains unclear, and so does how much Russia can be trusted to say.
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Irkutsk and the plague: A death exposes how much global health runs on trustIrkutsk and the plague: A death exposes how much global health runs on trust
What would happen if there was an accident at an infectious disease research institute in Siberia (Opens in new window) that was synthesising diseases to be more pathogenic, contagious and resistant to treatment? In July 2026, Annie Jacobsen published a non-fiction speculative book titled Biological War: A Scenario (Opens in new window). In her hypothetical plot, an accident infects a Russian scientist. The disease initially causes elation.. Instead of staying in bed or going to hospital, they go to work and socialise publicly, transmitting the pathogen to others, before finally succumbing to fever, seizures and death. The Russian government covers it up, reporting only an “atypical pneumonia-like illness”.
Coincidence has grim timing.
Months after publication, a scientist at a Siberian infectious disease research institute did die of “pneumonia of unknown aetiology” after a rumoured lab accident. On 29 September, a 28-year-old scientist at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute called Daria Shipilova fell ill with pneumonia and was transported to Shelekov Hospital by ambulance. She died three (Opens in new window) days later (Opens in new window). Local authorities initially quarantined 90 people; that figure quickly grew to 200 contacts.
According to Russia, there was nothing to worry about. The World Health Organisation requested information on 3 October (Opens in new window) and received a Russian response on 6 October. Shipilova had died of pneumonia. Test results revealed nothing. Contacts were quarantined as a precaution only. All were released. No further action was required (Opens in new window). The national public health agency Rospotrebnadzor repeated that the situation was (Opens in new window)“ (Opens in new window)stable (Opens in new window)” (Opens in new window).
But the world remained concerned. The People of (Opens in new window)Baikal (Opens in new window) journal, which is published in exile, reported that Shipilova had broken a test tube of yersinia pestis, the bacteria that causes plague.
WHO found no evidence of ongoing transmission (Opens in new window), but it also lacked a diagnosis. It could not exclude or determine that there had been a lab accident, and had little to go on either way. WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated (Opens in new window) “[t]imely, complete, and transparent information sharing under the International Health Regulations is essential to clarify conflicting reports and enable an accurate assessment of potential public health risks.”
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said transparent information sharing is essential to clarify conflicting reports (Mark Garten/UN Photo)
Having also writtena book about the plague (Opens in new window), I was intensely curious and consumed many reports. Even from credible news sources, I found a lot ofspeculation and confusion (Opens in new window). Some commentators claimed that Russia’s response and Shipilova’s death were proof of a cover up – because plague is treatable with antibiotics and not contagious. Neither statement is entirely true.
There arethree types of plague (Opens in new window). Septicaemic plague infects the bloodstream, and bubonic plague infects the lymph nodes. Both are usually transmitted by the bite of a flea which has been infected by an animal such as a rat, marmot or a squirrel. The diseases can be treated by antibiotics, but there has not been extensive testing and every year around five people in the United States die of these forms of plague. Antibiotics are readily available.
The third type of plague, called the pneumonic plague, is different. It is contagious – often highly contagious – which means it can spread from person to person when they cough or even breathe. It has an unprecedented mortality rate, sometimes close to 100%.
A lack of transparency is a serious limit of global disease surveillance, because all countries are dependent on one another to volunteer information.
Ordinary pneumonia is itself more likely to cause death in this part of Russia. In 2019 an article in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine (Opens in new window) reported that in Far Eastern Russia the level of pneumonia morbidity is 17% higher than across the Russian population and the level of mortality is 36% higher.
So, is there a plausible explanation for all this, or should we be worried about the “demon germ” unleashed in Jacobsen’s rather uncanny forecast?
The problem is that we don’t really know.
It is possible to identify specific genes associated with fatality and transmissibility and Nature has published reports of more transmissible mutations of plague which have evolved without interference (Opens in new window).
Russia does appear to have inherited a research program into biological and chemical weapons from the former Soviet Union. It is reported to have at least three military facilities undertaking research on biological weapons (Opens in new window). The US State Department claims (Opens in new window) this research breaches the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (Opens in new window).
The infectious diseases hospital in Shelekhov, where an employee of the Irkutsk Antiplague Research Institute had died, 7 October 2026 (Tatyana Makeyeva/AFP via Getty Images)
Established in 1934, the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute says on its own website that its activities include counteracting bioterrorism (Opens in new window). It reports two “brigades” developing techniques to deal with the consequences of “extreme natural and man-caused situations” in Russia and Central and Southeast Asian countries. The website also provides the legal framework for this research and other activities related to bioterrorism such as the collection of data, the publication of national standards for the medical curriculum, and even extension courses (Opens in new window) educating epidemiologists and bacteriologists on the threat.
The test results and postmortem for Shipilova have been marked by a lack of transparency. Russia also has a rumoured history of silencing medical practitioners and lab workers who report problems – remember that quite morbid series of accidents in early 2020 involving doctors who reported concerns about a lack of PPE being thrown out of windows (Opens in new window)? The People of Baikal published statements from a local doctor (Opens in new window) who is reported to have said, “doctors are forbidden to communicate with journalists” and claimed high levels of “medical secrecy” and “a ban on uncoordinated statements”. A lack of transparency results in lack of trust (Opens in new window). And this is not only a problem with Russia’s reports but a global problem (Opens in new window) with institutions not wanting to reveal errors or panic their populations.
A lack of transparency is a serious limit of global disease surveillance, because all countries are dependent on one another to volunteer information. While Russia has legal obligations to share information with the WHO, there are no enforcement mechanisms. That’s probably why the US attempted shirtfronting was so unsuccessful. On 6 October, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio asked for more information (Opens in new window) and said that the US had measures available to help Russia. Rospotrebnadzor, the Russian agency responsible for public health, made a counter statement, offering to “assist the US in combating infectious disease outbreaks (Opens in new window)”. Given the enormous increase between 2025 (Opens in new window)and (Opens in new window) 2026 in measles cases (Opens in new window) across the United States, a more cooperative approach could benefit everyone. But cooperation requires trust which is based on transparency. We need to know about measles - or plague - cases first. .
Jacobsen says (Opens in new window), “what makes biological warfare so sinister isn’t just its ability to deliver mass causalities and deaths but its capacity to create unbridled chaos”.
It would seem that regardless of the actual activities of the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute, the pathogen, or the circumstances of Shiplova’s death, two things are seemingly clear: plague can grab the world’s attention, and Russia can stoke our fears.
About the author
Philippa Nicole Barr
Philippa Nicole Barr currently lives and works in Sydney, Australia.
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