Pacific Islands Forum 2026: What Lowy’s Pacific team will be watching

The 55th Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders Meeting will be held in Palau from 31 August–4 September. Amid new military alliances, a global fuel crisis, maritime disputes, missile tests, disasters, votes of no confidence and a “super” El Niño – here’s what our Pacific experts will be watching for next week.

Oliver Nobetau, Director Pacific Islands Program

• The consensus-based approach to decision-making, the bedrock of the “Pacific Way”, is being tested. In the aftermath of China’s ballistic missile test, which splashed down in the Pacific, foreign ministers failed to agree a joint statement (Opens in new window) at their Suva meeting in August, instead folding softer language in their own communique (Opens in new window), not naming China directly and leaving it to the Leaders’ Statement in Palau for resolution. If that kind of stall continues – whether on the missile statement, or the push for funded, binding climate commitments under the Pacific Resilience Facility – it may be time to be candid about the practical limits of regionalism. Some matters might be better left in the realm of individual sovereign choice than forced to seek a consensus that doesn’t exist.

• A forum of 18 leaders needs decisive leadership, and Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr inherits the Chair at a moment no one will envy. The region is already feeling the pinch of El Niño. Some countries have declared drought while others are being rained out. PNG is facing extraordinary frosts that will worsen existing food security (Opens in new window) and clean water access problems. All this on top of the energy shocks flowing from the Iran war (Opens in new window). The answer doesn’t lie in more joint political statements but a tangible plan of action, which is meant to be one of themes of the talks this year.
• Another theme is building internal economic resilience. Business delegations have been travelling within the Pacific (Opens in new window), primarily in Melanesia, as a positive sign. Melanesia’s larger economies can play a larger role by investing outward, to meaningfully strengthen the wider Pacific.

Connor Graham, Research Fellow

• Taiwan will rejoin the PIF Leaders Meeting this year as a development partner after they (and all non-PIF members) were excluded from last year’s meeting (Opens in new window) in Solomon Islands. Whipps Jr has recently voiced his discontent with China’s unwelcome maritime incursions (Opens in new window) into his country’s waters – Palau is one of three Pacific nations with diplomatic ties to Taiwan – and accused Beijing of attempts at coercion (Opens in new window). Last year, the power of the host was used to shut Taiwan out under pressure from Beijing; this year, the same power is being wielded to welcome Taiwan back in defiance of pressure from Beijing.
• Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale has a Pacific-wide security agreement, and will no doubt bring this to the table in Palau. Questions remain about this hypothetical agreement, including concerns around sovereignty and substance. Australia has expressed interest in the concept but should be cautious not to overplay its enthusiasm before wider Pacific buy-in, lest it be accused () of putting geopolitical ambition ahead of local priorities.

Sarah Thompson, Project Director Aus-PNG Network

• Whipps Jr presented a proposal (Opens in new window) for a Pacific transition to 100% renewable energy at the Honiara meeting. Now he is PIF chair, the Pacific’s renewable transition is likely to feature again, but this time, with greater urgency (Opens in new window). Shortages and surging fuel costs due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted the Pacific dependence on imported fossil fuel. The need for secure and more affordable energy sources is only growing. Renewed calls are being made for a Pacific Energy Commissioner (Opens in new window).

• Pacific nations have pursued outstanding maritime boundary delimitations with renewed commitment since declarations in 2021 and 2023 about preserving maritime zones (Opens in new window) and statehood (Opens in new window). The progress has been welcomed by Forum foreign ministers (Opens in new window), and next week will see the finalisation of a PNG and Solomon Islands’ shared boundary treaty (Opens in new window). Yet despite the region’s commitment to safeguarding maritime boundaries, Vanuatu’s with France has been largely unaddressed by the Forum. This silence is particularly notable given PIF’s in New Caledonia’s independence referendums and Vanuatu’s intention to elevate the dispute to an international court. Will Matthew and Hunter Islands be on the cards at PIF?