Russia, explained.
No propaganda wall can block Russians from feeling the impact of the Ukraine war in their everyday lives (Kremlin.ru)
The regime will win Russia’s election easily – the risk is winning by too much.
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Putin sweats on Russia’s parliamentary vote as Ukraine invasion drags onPutin sweats on Russia’s parliamentary vote as Ukraine invasion drags on
Queensland Labor Premier Wayne Goss once warned Australian voters were sitting on their verandahs with baseball bats, ready to clobber the Keating government.
Could that metaphor be reimagined in 2026 – with Russians fantasising about smacking Vladimir Putin and his cronies with Leo Tolstoy’s 1200+-page tome War and Peace?
Russians head to the polls at the end of this week – in what is the first parliamentary election since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. There are hints of an irritated public mood as the economy hits the skids (Opens in new window) and the war nears its fifth anniversary.
“I am confident that the upcoming elections will confirm the stability of the state,” Putin told the United Russia Party Congress (Opens in new window) in late August.
But no propaganda wall (Opens in new window) can block Russians from feeling the impact of the Ukraine war in their everyday lives. Seven out of ten petrol stations had run out of fuel in August (Opens in new window) and there were bowser queues in Moscow for the first time, a consequence of long-range Ukrainian drone strikes hitting oil refineries (Opens in new window). Ukrainian drones have also attacked the Russian equivalent of Amazon, Wildberries’ warehouses (Opens in new window).
Living standards are falling (Opens in new window), inflation is rising, real wages are shrinking and interest rates are at 14% (Opens in new window). The Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre colourfully summed up the economic challenges (Opens in new window): “Russia’s economy has operated like a marathoner on fiscal steroids – and now those steroids are wearing off”.
Russians are withdrawing billions in cash from banks amid fears private savings could be channelled into the war effort (Opens in new window), according to The Washington Post. Opinion polls also show increased war fatigue, with support for the conflict in Ukraine having dropped from 78% in July 2025 to 66% in July (Opens in new window) this year.
The burned-out warehouse of the logistics and trading company Wildberries in the Koledino industrial park, 17 August 2026, in Podolsk, Russia (Getty Images)
While it is a given that Putin’s United Russia Party will claim the most seats, the Kremlin appears nervous. It knows that a landslide victory would be seen to be out of step with public sentiment and a sign of weakness. The ultimate margin needs to be carefully calibrated.
The party, which presently has around 70% of MPs in the 450-seat State Duma, is reportedly downgrading expectations of its share of votes and overall turnout (Opens in new window). Kremlin officials had also reportedly discussed delaying or cancelling the vote (Opens in new window).
Poll aggregator Politpro shows the United Russia Party is on 46% of the vote, with a -3.8% swing. (Opens in new window)
Putin, who is notoriously worried about assassination attempts and rarely leaves Moscow, has been forced to hit the campaign hustings to conduct a listening tour (Opens in new window) over the summer months. Magically, wherever Putin went, petrol prices fell (Opens in new window).
Things also got spicy when Russia’s Supreme Court last month banned the only anti-war opposition party, Yabloko, from running. Previously, Yabloko was tolerated within the system as a “constructive opposition” to provide some sheen of democratic legitimacy (Opens in new window). Protest votes may instead flow elsewhere to other smaller parties like the Communists or New People.
“They are so afraid of everything right now that they even removed Yabloko from the election,” Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of slain Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, said, urging Russians not to lose hope (Opens in new window).
“Vote for any party except United Russia.”
The Kremlin knows that a landslide victory would be seen to be out of step with public sentiment and a sign of weakness.
Before it was sidelined, Yabloko, one of Russia’s oldest active parties, had been steadily gaining social media traction with young people, who are fretting over a potential new round of troop mobilisation.
“As of today, there is no scenario that would require a mobilisation,” Putin said in carefully nuanced comments earlier this month (Opens in new window).
But the groundwork is being prepared (Opens in new window), some analysts believe.
Anecdotally, young Russian men are fleeing abroad, but the exodus is not as large as in 2022 (Opens in new window). The Kremlin’s “meat grinder” war tactics are sending Russian sons to their deaths in the Ukraine “kill zone” at an extraordinary rate. Recent British figures estimate more than half a million Russian troops have been killed in battle (Opens in new window) in Ukraine, part of 1.5 million casualties. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Opens in new window), Russian fatalities in Ukraine are more than four times greater than all US fatalities in all wars combined since the Second World War, and more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian fatalities in all wars combined since 1945.
Things have to be pretty grim if the Kremlin is sending 14th-century bones to lift morale on the front line. (Opens in new window)
No matter how Russians vote in the 18–20 September election, the foreign policy outlook and war trajectory will be more of the same. Putin is unlikely to be suddenly won over by flailing US diplomacy (Opens in new window). So long as the 73-year-old strongman remains at the apex of power in Moscow, the war in Ukraine will grind on.
Old mate is not ruling out sticking around until 2036 (Opens in new window).
About the author
Lisa Martin
Lisa Martin is an Australian journalist based in Copenhagen. She is a four-time Walkley Award finalist.
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