Japan, explained.
Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, left, and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa (Photos: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP and Asahi Shimbun, via Getty Images)
If the long-ruling party wants to signal a fresh start, a big first might be the answer.
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
The race to be Japan’s next prime minister: The chances for a first woman in the top jobThe race to be Japan’s next prime minister: The chances for a first woman in the top job
With Fumio Kishida last week announcing that he will not re-contest for a second term as leader of the incumbent Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), his tenure as Japan’s prime minister will end next month after three years in power. The timing of Kishida’s announcement to step down may have come across as abrupt, in the middle of an otherwise quiet Obon holiday season in Japan amid a megaquake warning in the country. But speculation about his resignation has been rife for a while.
For many months, the Kishida administration has struggled to contain the fallout from a string of corruption scandals and an inability to repair the LDP’s public image. Public approval hovers at near record lows for the long-ruling party, which has been in power almost continuously since 1955, dipping below 20 per cent in some polls. At the press conference to announce his exit, Kishida cited the need for him as leader of the party to take responsibility, placing great emphasis on “change” and “recovering trust and support from the public”. He spoke about the need to “show that the LDP has changed, and [his] decision … is the first sign … that the LDP is changing”.
Currently, the race for Japanese leadership is wide open, with no obvious frontrunner.
Kishida has been criticised for his poor handling of the LDP’s ties with the controversial Unification Church and a huge slush fund scandal involving underreporting of excessive income from fundraising events. Reform efforts, including dissolving major party factions and tightening political funds control law, bought him no respite and the party has been reeling.
The next general elections must be held by the third quarter of 2025, which gives the next prime minister about a year to regain public confidence. If a new top leader manages to recapture some popularity with the public, a snap election may also be called while the opposition parties in Japan remain weak.
What might constitute a big change for the conservative LDP and Japanese politics? And who could represent a new and reformed LDP?
The election of Japan’s first-ever female prime minister could certainly be a huge step forward in Japanese politics that is largely male-dominated. Emerging among the potential candidates for LDP leadership are Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa.
Japanese politics is largely male-dominated: A memorial ceremony for war dead at Nippon Budokan on the 79th anniversary of the Second World War Surrender, 15 August 2024 in Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo (The Asahi Shimbun via Getty Images)
Takaichi, who has already signalled her intention to run for the top office, is known for her right-wing views on security issues. In fact, she was among three cabinet ministers who visited the controversial Yasukuni shrine on 15 August, the anniversary of the end of the Second World War, and a day after Kishida’s surprise announcement. The visit is seen as a bid to shore up conservative support within the ruling party.
In contrast, Kamikawa has opted to remain low profile despite her rising public popularity as one of the suitable candidates to become prime minister in Japan. Called a “rising star” by LDP kingmaker Aso Taro, Kamikawa is known for her low-key, practical style and majime (serious or diligent) demeanour.
The election of a trailblazing female prime minister could galvanise the public in the short term, especially if the LDP can positively reposition itself as a reformed party that is forward-looking and future-focused – in a similar manner to US Vice President Kamala Harris, who has re-energised and instilled hope in the Democratic ticket ahead of the upcoming US presidential election. Unlike President Joe Biden, however, Prime Minister Kishida has not endorsed a successor.
Nevertheless, electing a women to the top job would a challenge to Japan’s conservative political climate.
As a member of the now-disbanded faction headed by Kishida, it would have been difficult for Kamikawa to express any ambition to run for the top office before he stepped down. This could change if Kishida decides to throw his support behind her. To avoid defeat at the next general elections, it is important that the LDP picks someone who is not connected to the corruption scandals. Despite scrutiny over a gender stereotyping comment, Kamikawa’s reputation has largely remained untainted by political scandals, and this clean image could be an asset to the LDP in restoring public trust.
Nevertheless, electing a woman to the top job would be a challenge in Japan’s conservative political climate, and it’s an open question whether radical reforms would ultimately be pursued. Currently, the race for Japanese leadership is wide open, with no obvious frontrunner.
Other potential candidates include former Defence Minister Ishiba Shigeru, who has polled favourably as the public’s top choice to be the next prime minister; former Foreign Minister Taro Kono; and the younger Shinjiro Koizumi, a former Environment Minister and the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Contenders would first need to get the support of 20 lawmakers to recommend them to office. As this is the first leadership election since most of the LDP’s factions dissolved, it is difficult to predict how the lawmakers might vote.
On the international front, continuity in terms of foreign and defence policies is expected. The Kishida administration has been viewed as effective in bolstering Japan’s international standing, and there are no incentives for any LDP successor to move away from the current foreign policy directions.
Kishida’s diplomatic successes include strengthening the alliance with the United States and other Quad partners Australia and India. He is also lauded for his efforts in mending relations with South Korea, paving the way for stronger US-Japan-South Korea trilateral security ties. Kishida has also followed in the hawkish footsteps of Shinzo Abe, shifting away from Japan’s pacifist postwar security policy, with his administration overseeing a landmark increase in military spending.
Rather than foreign policies, leadership debates in the coming weeks will likely focus on the domestic agendas that Kishida struggled with, with reinvigorating the Japanese economy and tackling inflation at the crux. Public discontent has risen over day-to-day issues such as higher living costs, a weakened yen, and real wages decline. All this contributed to his plummeting support.
Inheriting these economic woes, a fresh start for the floundering LDP and Kishida’s successor will not come easy. He or she will continue to face an uphill battle to recover public support in the long term.
About the author
Tan Ming Hui
Ming Hui Tan is Assistant Editor at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS), S.
Topics
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
