Russia’s latest strike against Ukraine represents a serious escalation of tensions between the Moscow and NATO, led by the United States. Moscow has employed an intermediate-range ballistic missile that could be fitted with a nuclear warhead, with the range to strike anywhere in Europe.
The attack is less consequential in its direct consequences for the war between Russia and Ukraine. Early reports say the Russians used the still-experimental RS-26, a hugely expensive way to deliver a handful of warheads. This missile could have a range of up to 5,500 kilometres but was fired from less than 800 kilometres to its target, reinforcing the sense that Russia was sending a message to the West rather than trying to deliver a major military blow against Ukraine.
We will know more soon about the missile; open-source analysis of military capabilities has proven remarkably strong in this war. Already, we are seeing social media posts showing apparent missile fragments, which will be examined minutely. (I won’t link to any, as it is impossible to verify the photos and videos right now.)
Putin’s statement after the launch offers a few clues as to the true purpose of this attack.
Right from the top, Putin addresses “those who persist in the illusion that a strategic defeat can be inflicted upon Russia”, signalling to Western powers that this missile strike was all about them. And by referring to “strategic defeat”, he is telling them that Russia is prepared to escalate further should the West have any hopes of dealing Russia such a heavy blow that it endangers the integrity of his regime, risks the collapse of the Russian economy, or deals the Russian Army such a heavy defeat that it can no longer defend its territory from NATO.
You don’t need to buy Putin’s spurious claim that the war was “provoked by the West” to find his comments concerning.
Putin also said the strike was a direct response to the US and UK decision to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles against a wider range of targets inside Russia. (In turn, that decision may well have been prompted by the deployment of North Korean troops to aid Russia’s war effort against Ukraine.)
Putin makes a specific claim about the US and UK missiles: “the use of such weapons is not possible without the direct involvement of military experts from the manufacturing nations.” He’s saying that Ukraine cannot operate these weapons independently, and that the US and UK role does not end when they hand the missiles over. (As an aside, this is probably why Germany has refused to hand over its Taurus cruise missiles, similar to Storm Shadow, to Ukraine.)
What conclusion does Putin draw? That “the regional conflict in Ukraine provoked by the West has assumed elements of a global nature”, and that “we consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military facilities of those countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities”. You don’t need to buy Putin’s spurious claim that the war was “provoked by the West” to find this concerning.
Still, we should keep in mind that, even as the war escalates, the two great powers continue to signal their awareness of how precarious the situation risks becoming.
For one thing, the Biden administration’s authorisation for Ukraine to use US-made missiles against targets on Russian territory was publicly announced, which somewhat diminished the immediate battlefield effect for Ukraine, since it gave Russian forces a short time to prepare. And Russia notified the United States of its upcoming strike against Ukraine 30 minutes beforehand, thus ensuring that the US could not mistake the launch for an impending attack on America or an ally.
One final thought about Putin’s statement: it may have been targeted at European NATO members as much as the United States. After all, if the RS-26 was indeed used, it doesn’t have the range to hit the continental United States but plenty to hit any target in Europe. And as Putin boasted in his address, the Europeans don’t have the missile defence capabilities to stop it.
All the hubbub about nuclear threats means a lot of you are missing the fact that Russia may have just demonstrated a capability to strike strategic targets in Europe like airbases with a high impact cluster munition that evades 99% of NATO's air defense inventory.
— Decker Eveleth (@dex_eve) November 21, 2024
