Trump lost the midterms – not his grip on foreign policy

A repudiation at the ballot box hasn't resolved the uncertainty it brings Republicans.

Cory Alpert

5 November 20264 min read

Donald Trump’s victory in 2024 seemed absolute. The demographic shifts in that election convinced much of the world that the United States was undergoing a rightward shift that would last for years. Countries and industries made their bets accordingly, integrating themselves within a famously transactional President’s world.

That allowed Trump a free hand around the globe. Negotiations with allies and adversaries alike came with the understanding that Trump held unilateral control over Washington. That notion was disabused on 3 November when the floor dropped from the support that Trump was assumed to have.

On the wind of dissatisfaction with Trump’s agenda, voters went for Democrats in nearly every competitive race available. Democrats are on track to flip at least seven Senate seats, 31 House seats, three governorships, and hundreds of state legislative seats.

It leaves Republicans to face a particular crisis on foreign policy.

Trump changed longstanding Republican orthodoxy with his lust for tariffs and distaste for traditional democratic alliances. Despite the framing of this midterm election around affordability, the effects that voters have felt on their cost of living have come as a direct result of his tariffs and the war in Iran.

Foreign governments also now have to contend with a split power base in Washington.

Given the absolute repudiation of Trump’s political project, Republicans looking to run for president – or for any prominent office – in 2028 must decide whether to continue to embrace Trump’s agenda or to find a new path forward.

Some, especially those closely tied to Trump now, will double down. This will be a political calculation, hoping that Trump will carry them through a primary. Others will attempt to lead a new Republican Party, one that risks Trump’s ire while he still serves in the White House and, ostensibly, as the leader of the party.

While he is still in office, Trump still holds unilateral authority over foreign policy.

Prior to the midterm results coming in, Washington was chattering about renewed strikes on Iran and Trump refusing to concede the election result. Trump is protecting his ego with the idea that his name was not technically on the ballot – despite months of campaigning, asking Republican voters to act as though it was.

Trump loves nothing more than a winner. His social media posts in the aftermath of the election show contempt for the Republican Party that found small ways to pull away from him at the last minute, and a sort of deflated respect for the scale of the Democrats’ victory.

However, that leaves Trump in a dangerous and uncertain position.

He is equally likely to learn the lesson of these midterms and defang many of his foreign policy steps that led to a historic backlash against him as he is to double down, knowing that he faces no political future after he leaves office in January of 2029.

Foreign governments also now have to contend with a split power base in Washington. Trump’s ambassadors no longer speak for an administration with a mandate from the American people. Some of Trump’s phone calls to foreign leaders may be met with a hesitation as those leaders prefer to wait until a new administration takes power in 2029.

Lame duck periods usually come with this kind of reticence, but they don’t usually last two full years.

Elon Musk during his DOGE days (Molly Riley/Official White House Photo)

All the while, Democrats will play some role in shaping what the administration can do. They now control the budget process and can force a government shutdown if Trump doesn’t agree to their demands on key policy items.

Democrats will also have substantial investigative authority. They have already signalled that they will pull at the financial ties around the Trump family, and they will call for questioning many of the corporate executives they hold responsible for rising costs of living.

These executives are the same ones entering into massive deals with foreign governments, such as OpenAI or SpaceX. For the first time since the leaders of those companies sat around Trump at his inauguration, they will now face serious, and legally binding, questioning from Congress. That pressure is already changing how businesses operate.

While the messaging around American politics has been solely about affordability, it has emerged primarily as a consequence of foreign policy. Democrats have a much clearer mandate from the American people, which will change how Washington operates.

Republicans now face some deep soul searching that could change what governments and industries have come to expect for the last ten years.

About the author

Cory Alpert

Cory Alpert is a PhD researcher at the University of Melbourne, where he studies the impact of AI on democracy. Previously, he served in the Biden White House for three years and as the senior adviser to Mayor Steve Benjamin.

Topics

United States Donald Trump Elections