Ukraine, explained.
Donald Trump has chosen to make this November’s midterm election a referendum on his leadership (Daniel Torok/Official White House Photo)
A fuel shipment gave Trump the pre-election boost he craved – and made Kyiv’s best tactic newly dangerous.
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Trump’s cost-of-living politics just rescued Putin’s war chestTrump’s cost-of-living politics just rescued Putin’s war chest
In 2024, Donald Trump won an election largely framed around cost of living. Affordability became the political buzzword of the moment.
His second term has been marked by a series of decisions that would raise Americans’ cost of living, tied directly to policy choices that are central to his political identity: tariffs and now the war in Iran.
Trump has also chosen to make this November’s midterm election a referendum on his leadership. An odd choice, given that voters give him just a 17% approval rating (Opens in new window) on handling their costs of living.
With weeks to go, Trump is looking for a success story that he can bring back to voters, to reignite their belief in his mythology as the dealmaker in chief.
On the other side of the world, Ukraine has focused its efforts on targeting Russian oil infrastructure, damaging both its revenue-generating export markets and the domestic energy supply. These attacks have now raised costs for everyday Russians far from the frontline.
Those attacks had combined with Western sanctions to spell trouble for Vladimir Putin’s economy.
Because Trump is so powerfully motivated by his own appearance to his domestic political audience, adversaries can tailor deals around the American political calendar.
Yet Putin found the perfect moment to offer Trump the exact thing he has been looking for: a deal that Trump could believe (Opens in new window) would bring economic relief to his domestic audience.
This agreement, Trump announced over the weekend, would see 1.8 million tonnes of diesel released “to the American and global marketplace” – though many energy experts believe (Opens in new window) the arrangement is both too small and too late to have any meaningful effect on cost of living in the United States.
The side effect though is much-needed cash (Opens in new window) flowing into the Russian war machine. This has created a new vulnerability for Ukraine.
Kyiv’s strategy of attacking Russian refineries had proven successful. As the region heads into a dark winter, those attacks threatened to have economic and political implications for a Russian regime that has staked its legitimacy on the stability it claims to provide its citizens.
The Kremlin itself had acknowledged that the war had largely settled into a stalemate (Opens in new window), even with its constant barrage of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.
But such a strategy now directly attacks Trump’s domestic political agenda. If Ukraine continues attacking Russian oil infrastructure, it now risks upsetting Trump directly. Ukraine risks having to choose between a successful military campaign and the chance at a closer relationship with the United States.
Trump’s wishful thinking has already outpaced this conundrum, announcing a ceasefire that Kyiv said it had never seen (Opens in new window).
But Putin’s new deal points to a larger asymmetry that Trump has created. Because Trump is so powerfully motivated by his own appearance to his domestic political audience, adversaries can tailor deals around the American political calendar.
Allies are now forced to take note.
Adversaries no longer need to defeat an American ally on the battlefield if they can make its strategy politically inconvenient to Washington.
About the author
Cory Alpert
Cory Alpert is a PhD researcher at the University of Melbourne, where he studies the impact of AI on democracy. Previously, he served in the Biden White House for three years and as the senior adviser to Mayor Steve Benjamin.
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