Why an EU “associate membership” is the wrong Canada story

The label is noise but the substance is an economic security alliance that Australia should watch closely.

Ivana Damjanovic

5 October 20264 min read

Talk of Canada becoming “the first associate member of the EU” has come right from the top.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced she would “open the door for Canada” in her annual State of the Union (Opens in new window) address last month. Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney was in attendance and welcomed the ambition (Opens in new window).

Yet for all the speculation that unsurprisingly followed – fuelled by the Trump administration’s hostile attitude towards its neighbour – the real emphasis was lost.

Both leaders instead devoted much greater attention to developing an “Alliance for the Future” than to associate membership itself.

“Associate membership” is not a recognised category under EU treaties. Membership of the EU (Opens in new window) remains open only to “European states”, while the treaties and practice provide for a range of association arrangements with non-EU countries. EU treaties do recognise a specific category of association agreements (Opens in new window), yet in practice these have mostly been concluded with countries in the EU’s neighbourhood, with prospective candidates for EU membership, and most recently, with the United Kingdom.

Mark Carney greeted by Ursula von der Leyen following his address to the European Parliament, 17 September 2026 (CC-BY-4.0: © European Union 2026 – Source: EP)

The EU and Canada already have extensive legal, political and institutional arrangements. At the core of their relationship is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) (Opens in new window). Unlike an association agreement, CETA is a more conventional free trade agreement that has been provisionally applied since 2017.

The deal still awaits ratification in 10 EU member states. The French government, for one, has delayed ratification for fear of rejection (Opens in new window) over local farmers’ concerns. Such a rejection could arguably bring down the whole agreement.

This makes it difficult to imagine the EU and Canada embarking on a more ambitious legal arrangement, including deeper Canadian integration with the EU single market, which would most certainly require ratification by all EU member states and entail closer Canadian alignment with European regulatory standards.

Despite this, the EU and Canada have a very dynamic relationship. Canada was the first country with which the EU concluded a strategic partnership on critical raw materials, and the first non-European country to access the EU’s SAFE program (Opens in new window) through a Security and Defence Partnership. This is complemented by Canada’s participation in a host of initiatives, including Horizon Europe, the Green Alliance and a digital partnership (Opens in new window). Canada also serves as a partner country in the EU’s sanctions regime against Russia.

Canada brings assets to its relationship with the EU that Australia cannot replicate.

The next logical step would be to elevate the relationship to the “highest level possible”, which von der Leyen and Carney labelled as the “Alliance for the Future”, signalling a move from trade-focused collaboration to “a common prosperity and economic security space”. This would involve “deep cooperation in the full range of strategic capabilities”, including critical minerals, advanced technologies and defence.

By pooling resources and strengthening existing initiatives, such a partnership could provide an overarching framework through which these existing and emerging forms of cooperation between the EU and Canada could be structured and expanded.

Carney said the alliance “would create a beacon for other democracies” and be “open enough that others can join”. That raises the prospect that Australia, as a like-minded democracy, might pursue a similar path.

Yet Canada also brings assets to its relationship with the EU that Australia cannot replicate. The Arctic will be “a flagship joint project”, reflecting Canada’s unique geographic position. As geopolitical competition intensifies and climate change creates new economic opportunities, the Arctic has become a region of growing strategic relevance (Opens in new window). This might help explain why Canada has emerged as the first candidate for the EU’s Alliance for the Future.

Australia’s relationship with the EU is on a similar trajectory to Canada’s, although it has not yet reached the same maturity. While negotiations for the EU-Australia Free Trade Agreement (Opens in new window) concluded in March this year, the deal is yet to be formally concluded, and it could take another year or more before entering into force. Australia and the EU have already concluded partnerships on critical minerals and defence. The newly announced European Corporation on Critical Raw Materials (Opens in new window), intended to enable joint EU stockpiling alongside a larger competitiveness fund, is likely to become one of the foundations of enhanced collaboration.

Canada can provide the minerals, while Europe and Canada can jointly invest in advanced processing capabilities and integrated value chains. Australia could equally contribute and benefit from such an arrangement, as part of a broader economic security agenda.

Australia’s geographic position offers advantages of its own in the Indo-Pacific, where the EU is reassessing its strategic relationship and where Australia is emerging as a key partner for Europe.

Canada may again be first. Australia, however, should pay close attention.

About the author

Ivana Damjanovic

Dr Ivana Damjanovic is Associate Professor of Law and Project Director of the EU Centre of Excellence in Critical Minerals at the University of Canberra, and Research Fellow of the Australian National University Centre for European Studies.

Topics

Canada EU Trade & investment Australia Energy & resources