As Australia’s university sector grapples with domestic electioneering, its biggest challenge to date is happening across the Pacific. While the Trump Administration cuts funding to education and research, including to its most elite research institutions, China’s economy looks set to increasingly be driven by knowledge and innovation.
Australia is deeply entrenched within a global knowledge ecosystem that is being turned on its head. Understanding how our universities are and potentially could be impacted is the first step to plotting our course over the coming months, for an issue that will invariably have national implications spilling well beyond the higher education sector.
The first point to note is that decisions during the first Trump administration ensured China’s rapid growth in its AI and high-tech sectors in recent years. Trump’s policies during his first term, continued and expanded under the Biden administration, included defence security controls and visa restrictions, accelerating a shift from low-value manufacturing to high-value sectors in China. The US protectionist policies pushed China to take on its own version of self-reliance, aiming to develop its own technological expertise to compete with the United States on its own terms. This led China’s economic base to take a tech-turn. Sought-after jobs now are found in software development, R&D and advanced manufacturing, rather than the factories of the past that built China’s export economy.
Now back in the White House, Trump’s policies look set to further contribute to China’s technological grit.
Trump is also holding the federal allocation of funding to universities in an effort to shift the ideological tilt of the US higher education system. Universities have seen federal money allocations suspended, threatening research projects, laboratories and jobs. So far, the Trump administration has pulled, or threatened to pull more than US$12 billion from universities. Global partnerships, including Australian researchers who receive funding from the US government, have not been spared.
At the same time, the administration’s steep trade tariffs on China aim to bring traditional manufacturing and agricultural jobs from China to the United States.
Meanwhile in Beijing, the focus is not on manufacturing or agriculture – sectors increasingly seen as drivers of past growth. Instead, China is aiming at high-skilled industries. China’s recent policy documents all point to an education and research-led economic agenda that places technology and innovation at its centre.