China, explained.
The junta is searching for allies as it faces battlefield setbacks (AFP via Getty Images)
Conflict along the border has spillover effects for China – and an increasingly evident geopolitical dimension.
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China’s tightrope walk: Mediating in MyanmarChina’s tightrope walk: Mediating in Myanmar
In recent months, the China-Myanmar border has erupted into chaos as clashes between Myanmar’s military – the Tatmadaw – and ethnic armed organisations such as the Kachin Independence Army and the Three Brotherhood Alliance intensify. Towns including Pangwa near the Chinese border have fallen to the junta’s opponents, sending refugees fleeing towards China. Beijing responded by closing border crossings such as Tengchong’s Dian Tan.
Myanmar’s military, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, is struggling to maintain control, having lost key territories and trade routes. Faced with this escalating violence spilling over its border, China has sought to mediate and pressure both the junta and the ethnic armed organisations to negotiate ceasefires. These interventions mark a shift from Beijing’s traditional stance of non-interference and reflect the perceived urgency of stabilising a region critical to its interests.
The stakes rose further when Min Aung Hlaing met with Russian President Vladimir Putin this month in Moscow, signalling Myanmar’s deepening ties with Russia amid Western isolation. This meeting – reported by AP News – underscores the junta’s search for allies as it faces battlefield setbacks.
Meanwhile, China’s diplomatic efforts, highlighted by Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s August 2024 visit to Naypyidaw and Min Aung Hlaing’s November 2024 trip to Kunming, show Beijing doubling down on its role as a mediator. These moves come as the conflict threatens China’s economic lifeline and forces it to balance support for the junta with realistic outreach to the ethnic armed organisations.
A border wall between China and Myanmar, in Ruili, Yunnan Province (Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images)
The stability of the Myanmar border is not just a regional concern, it is a cornerstone of China’s economic and security strategy. Myanmar hosts the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a vital artery of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This corridor includes oil and gas pipelines extending from the Bay of Bengal to Yunnan Province and it can help to reduce China’s reliance on the vulnerable Strait of Malacca for energy imports.
Disruptions from conflict, such as the 2023 Operation 1027 offensive by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, jeopardise this flow and threaten energy security in China’s southwestern provinces. Already, projects estimated to have a construction value of up to US$28 billion have been disrupted by the fighting.
Beyond energy, the border region is rich in resources critical to China’s economy.
Myanmar has become a battleground for great power rivalry.
Myanmar supplies China’s rare earth imports, which are essential for high-tech industries. Yet fighting has halted mining operations, with closed border gates leaving resources stranded.
Instability also fuels cross-border crime, including human trafficking and cyber scams. Beyond that, the 2,100-kilometre border has seen spillover from the conflict, such as stray artillery fire and refugee arrivals, which threaten stability in Yunnan province. China’s mediation is thus a defensive play to protect its investments and prevent a chaotic neighbourhood.
China’s active intervention signals that the Myanmar conflict has transcended its internal roots and morphed into a geopolitical problem. Myanmar has become a battleground for great power rivalry. Russia’s support – supplying fighter jets and talk of constructing a small-capacity nuclear power plant – bolsters the junta, while China’s backing of the Tatmadaw’s planned 2025 elections aims to cement its influence. This alignment mirrors Beijing’s stance in Ukraine where it has embraced Russia, and suggests a broader strategy of supporting authoritarian regimes to counter Western pressure. But not all winds are blowing China’s way. By aligning with a faltering junta and pressuring ethnic armed organisations, Beijing risks alienating resistance forces and entrenching a stalemate.
This moment matters because China’s mediation reveals its ambitions and limits. For China, the border is no longer just a frontier – it’s a test of its regional dominance and global narrative as a peacemaker. Meanwhile, the United States and European Union, hampered by sanctions and disengagement, cede ground to China and risk Myanmar’s slide into a protracted proxy conflict.
About the author
Su Mon Thant
Su Mon Thant is currently based in Tokyo, working as a Global Researcher at Research & Advisory Division for overseas startups and market trends.
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