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Türkiye and Australia convene at the COP30 UN Climate Change Conference in Belem, Brazil on 2 November 2025 (Pablo Porciuncula/AFP via Getty Images)
Three steps could turn the hosting compromise with Türkiye into real gains for the region and the world.
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COP31 still offers Australia and the Pacific a chance to reset global climate ambitionCOP31 still offers Australia and the Pacific a chance to reset global climate ambition
Last month, the Pacific Islands Forum announced that Fiji will host this year’s pre-COP, the ministerial gathering ahead of the annual United Nations climate summit (COP31). Alongside the October talks in Suva, Tuvalu will convene a leaders’ segment to foreground what climate impacts already mean for small, shock-exposed nations on the frontline.
The Pacific pre-COP emerged from an unusual compromise between Australia and Türkiye over hosting rights for this year’s negotiations. Canberra had campaigned for years to stage the summit alongside Pacific partners, seeking to elevate the region’s climate concerns on the global stage at a moment when the world is running out of time to curb emissions.
When consensus on the host proved unattainable, Australia eventually made way for Türkiye to convene the summit and lead the Action Agenda, the arm of COP outside formal negotiations that centres on voluntary pledges and initiatives from governments, businesses and civil society. Many of the summit’s practical outcomes now take shape there. In return, Australia will assume the newly created role of “President of Negotiations”, with authority to steer consultations and shape draft texts. The Pacific, while not hosting the main summit, secured the right to host the pre-COP.
Many viewed the outcome as a diplomatic setback that would weaken the region’s influence over the summit. But that need not be the case. As we argue in a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, COP31 can still deliver meaningful outcomes for the region if the Australian government uses the moment strategically. Three policy steps stand out.
First, use the Pacific pre-COP to generate political momentum early. Pre-COP meetings are usually technical exercises where delegates test draft text and align positions. But this one will take place in a region confronting rising seas, eroding coastlines and intensifying storms. Meeting in Suva and Funafuti will allow delegates to see these pressures first-hand, injecting a sense of urgency before the main negotiations.
Building a coalition behind a shared agenda will strengthen negotiating power when consequential talks begin in Antalya.
But the setting alone will not drive ambition and guarantee attendance. The agenda must therefore be framed around the shared interests of climate-vulnerable developing countries, not only the Pacific.
Adaptation finance at scale, reforms that make climate finance faster and easier to access, and stronger fossil fuel commitments are all issues that resonate far beyond the region. Ocean governance beyond conservation remains largely absent from COP discussions, despite becoming a growing concern for many developing countries as rising seas test maritime boundaries and even continuity of statehood. Here, Pacific states and Australia are well placed to lead a discussion. Initiatives such as the Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty – a world-first agreement recognising continuity of statehood alongside pathways for climate migration – offer a starting point.
Building a coalition behind a shared agenda will strengthen negotiating power when consequential talks begin in Antalya.
Ensuring the pre-COP attracts serious engagement will also require visible political leadership. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese should take a prominent role and extend targeted invitations to selected countries so the gathering becomes one that leaders cannot afford to miss.
Second, use Australia’s authority as President of Negotiations with intent. In this role, represented by Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, Canberra will oversee consultations and guide draft texts at moments when ambition is most vulnerable to dilution. Close coordination with Türkiye on the Action Agenda will help ensure priorities appear in headline initiatives, not just negotiating rooms.
Holding the line on fossil fuels will be important. Australia should push to reinforce the COP28 commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, engaging constructively with countries that continue to block progress. Where consensus proves difficult, ambition will need to be balanced with pragmatism. Encouraging credible voluntary commitments to initiatives such as the Belém Declaration could help protect gains and prevent backsliding.
Third, back diplomacy with delivery. Australia’s bid to host COP31 signalled a willingness to mobilise substantial financial resources. Rather than letting this ambition dissipate with the hosting compromise, part of it should be redirected towards tangible climate action. That includes properly resourcing a high-impact pre-COP in the Pacific and ensuring Pacific diplomats have the means to represent their interests effectively in Türkiye.
Redirected funding could also scale up climate-resilient infrastructure through the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific or support Pacific-led initiatives such as the Pacific Resilience Facility. Looking beyond the region, Australia should bolster its global climate credentials with greater support for multilateral funds, such as the Green Climate Fund. Canberra’s current pledge – just AU$50 million over four years – is modest for a fund that is now delivering strong results in the Pacific.
The hosting deal might have shifted the balance of influence, but the region still retains meaningful levers: a pre-COP in the region to set expectations early, stewardship of the negotiating text, and the ability to redirect resources into delivery.
That leverage matters in a fraught global context. Climate diplomacy today unfolds against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, fiscal pressures and competing global crises. In these conditions, progress will not happen by default. Strong leadership from Australia and the Pacific will be needed to ensure COP31 is remembered not as a missed opportunity, but as a moment that helped sustain global climate ambition.
Ultimately, COP31 will not be judged by where it is held, but by what it delivers.
About the authors
Melanie Pill
Dr Melanie Pill was a Research Fellow in the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre where she was responsible for progressing the Centre's work on climate change.
Georgia Hammersley
Georgia Hammersley was a Research Associate in the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre .
Alexandre Dayant
Alexandre Dayant is a senior economist and former Deputy Director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre, a dedicated policy research centre within the Lowy Institute.
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