ASEAN, explained.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting Timor-Leste President Jose Ramos-Horta in Gandhinagar, India (MEA Photo Gallery)
The newest ASEAN member faces the Indian Ocean, not the South China Sea, giving India fresh maritime leverage.
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
India’s chance with Timor-Leste to shift ASEAN’s gazeIndia’s chance with Timor-Leste to shift ASEAN’s gaze
“India and ASEAN together represent nearly one-fourth of the world’s population… ASEAN is a cornerstone of India’s Act East Policy. India has always fully supported ASEAN centrality and ASEAN’s outlook in the Indo-Pacific … And I warmly welcome Timor-Leste as the newest member of ASEAN.”
This reminder from Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the recent ASEAN–India Summit was a marker of the importance India attaches to Timor-Leste’s admission to ASEAN in October 2025. India views ASEAN through the lens of connectivity and convenience, so it needs to rethink how Timor-Leste fits into its wider maritime approach to the Indo-Pacific.
India’s Act East Policy does include maritime components. The Kaladan Multimodal Project with Myanmar and port-led cooperation with Vietnam are examples. Yet India’s most tangible progress has unfolded on land, and it is far more accustomed to engaging mainland ASEAN through overland corridors and cross-border connectivity plans. Timor-Leste’s accession opens an eastern maritime doorway that aligns more naturally with India’s broader Indo-Pacific priorities.
For ASEAN itself, the entry of its newest member reorients the region’s spatial imagination.
Located at the edge of the Lesser Sunda Islands, Timor-Leste draws ASEAN’s gaze further south and west, toward the Lombok and Timor seas, gateways that link the Indian and Pacific Oceans. With Dili inside the fold, ASEAN’s domain now stretches from the Andaman Sea to the Timor Sea, completing its oceanic footprint across both sides of the Indo-Pacific divide. Most of ASEAN’s coastal states face the South China Sea, which orients their attention northeastward to China’s assertiveness, Taiwan’s trade routes, and US freedom-of-navigation patrols.
Timor-Leste’s story also speaks to values and converges with India’s geoeconomic ambitions.
By contrast, Timor-Leste’s seascape opens south and west toward Australia and the eastern Indian Ocean. Although Indonesia already anchors ASEAN’s Indian Ocean presence, Timor-Leste adds a second, smaller but meaningful point of orientation that aligns closely with India’s maritime sphere and Australia’s extended neighbourhood. It nudges ASEAN’s geography slightly further into the eastern Indian Ocean, where Australia and Indonesia are building dense networks of security, blue economy, and climate cooperation.
India has already advanced its efforts, opening a mission in Dili in 2023 in recognition of Timor-Leste’s location near critical sea lanes connecting the Strait of Malacca with the Pacific. Although Timor-Leste is not yet a member of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), it is a natural candidate for future participation. As an Indian Ocean littoral state with priorities in fisheries, marine ecology, and renewable energy, its eventual engagement with IORA would dovetail neatly with India’s MAHASAGAR vision, the articulation of a Global South-centred ocean policy.
A reading of this geography must be tempered by a realistic assessment of Timor-Leste’s capacities. The country’s economy is small, and its infrastructure remains rudimentary. Its ability to function as a maritime connector for India will depend on more targeted investment. India has already begun laying a modest foundation through grants and agricultural cooperation. A large part of this comes through the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Program, the Ministry of External Affairs’ flagship capacity-building platform. However, meaningful maritime cooperation would require India to scale up these engagements. This could include assisting with port management, maritime domain awareness and renewable energy infrastructure.
Timor-Leste’s story also speaks to values and converges with India’s geoeconomic ambitions. As Asia’s youngest democracy, Timor-Leste carries moral capital disproportionate to its size. Its inclusion after years of reform shows ASEAN’s willingness to reward democratic resilience, a norm that has grown faint amid the region’s authoritarian drift. This provides a chance for India to reinvigorate the democratic connect in its ASEAN relations by supporting capacity-building, digital governance, and blue-economy cooperation with a fellow democracy. Timor Sea’s hydrocarbon and marine resources further converge with India’s deep-sea exploration ambitions. Cooperation in resource governance and maritime ecology could serve as the next frontier of India–ASEAN functional engagement, which is less prone to the geopolitical contestations that haunt the South China Sea.
Modi announced that 2026 will be marked as the “ASEAN–India Year of Maritime Cooperation”. The initiative hints at New Delhi’s intent to deepen maritime, security, economic, and cultural linkages with the region. ASEAN is rebalancing southward, Australia and Indonesia are densifying partnerships in the Timor and Arafura Seas, and Timor-Leste itself is seeking diversified development partners. If India chooses to invest where it matters, New Delhi would certainly find its new anchor in the eastern Indian Ocean.
About the author
Sanchari Ghosh
Sanchari Ghosh is a PhD candidate at the Department of International Relations, Jadavpur University, Kolkata.
Topics
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
