Southeast Asia, explained.
Thai military direct traffic in downtown Bangkok after the 2011 floods (Paula Bronstein/Getty Images)
While the government has taken steps to address the effects of climate change, efforts must be scaled up.
Subscribe to The Informer for monthly expert analysis, and to Events for advance notice of visiting world leaders and distinguished guests.
You may unsubscribe from Lowy Institute newsletters at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
Thailand’s path to climate resilienceThailand’s path to climate resilience
Heavy rains, landslides and flash floods are yet again battering Thailand. Amid the annual monsoon season (July–October), the recent arrival of the La Niña weather phenomenon and the aftermath of Typhoon Yagi have caused chaos in the country’s northern region.
The consequences are severe. The estimated cost to Chiang Rai and nearby provinces is as much as 27 billion baht (US$830 million) from the first wave of flooding. More than 150,000 families have been affected since mid-August.
Thailand is increasingly suffering from the impacts of climate change, particularly rising temperatures, increased rainfall and more frequent severe flooding. The devastating 2011 Bangkok floods, which caused more than 680 deaths and affected nearly 13 million people, resulted in 1.43 trillion baht (US$46.5 billion) – or 12.6 per cent of GDP – in total damage and losses. Severe floods across Thailand in September–October 2022 led to government relief spending of US$663 million, or 0.13 per cent of GDP.
Estimates from Krungsri Research project that this year’s flooding could cost the Thai economy up to 59.5 billion baht (US$1.7 billion), adding to the country’s economic concerns. Some steps have already been taken. Last year, the government established a new climate change department within the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment to coordinate national climate-related efforts.
More can be done. As climate-related disasters increase globally, countries such as Thailand must integrate national efforts, in areas including water management, to achieve effective response planning, particularly in urban areas. Flood and drought forecasting, climate change modelling, hazard mapping and climate risk assessments must be strengthened acrossThailand to refine hydrological projections and identify vulnerable areas. Enhanced data collection and forecasting allow authorities and communities to take preventive measures earlier.
There are clear benefits to this approach. The United Nations highlights that an US$800 million investment in early warning systems could prevent climate-related disaster losses between US$3 and 16 billion a year in developing countries. Meanwhile, giving just 24 hours’ notice of impending hazardous events could reduce the ensuing damage by 30 per cent.
The success of this approach was seen in 2023 when Myanmar’s improved disaster management for Cyclone Mocha, including domestic early warnings, resulted in significantly fewer casualties compared to Cyclone Nargis in 2008, which caused up to 140,000 deaths. The lack of an early warning system and weather radar network that could predict cyclones were major factors in the high death toll.
Thailand can leverage its regional partnership with Australia, which has made major advancements in these areas and possesses valuable expertise and technical knowledge in managing extreme weather events.
Investing in artificial intelligence and advanced satellites could significantly enhance climate monitoring, data collection and analysis. Thailand can leverage its regional partnership with Australia, which has made major advancements in these areas and possesses valuable expertise and technical knowledge in managing extreme weather events.
For example, the Flood and Storm Intelligence Sensing project in the Australian state of New South Wales is testing the use of AI and mobile networks to predict flooding impacts by integrating localised real-time weather data and historical Bureau of Meteorology data to predict flood risks. These advancements could help support Thailand’s climate resilience efforts.
Green infrastructure, such as constructed wetlands and urban forests, can also help manage stormwater and enhance urban resilience. By increasing water absorption and reducing runoff, the infrastructure can help mitigate flooding while also providing recreational spaces.
Despite having one of Southeast Asia’s lowest ratios of green spaces, Bangkok plans to build 500 parks by 2026, including the King Bhumibol Adulyadej the Great Memorial Park. This park, currently under construction and larger than New York’s Central Park, will feature 4,500 trees and a floodplain designed to purify rainwater and help mitigate flooding. This initiative builds on the recent opening of the US$20 million Benjakitti Forest Park in the city, which is also designed to absorb excess rain during monsoons. Such projects could be replicated in other flood-prone areas across Thailand.
However, challenges lie ahead. Aside from time constraints and strategic planning to reduce long-term climate change effects, the financing and management of adequate water infrastructure must be addressed by governments – central and local. But this requires substantial investment, typically $7 of capital for every $1 of income.
The question arises: who can finance this? Thailand's average household debt has surged by 8.4 per cent year-on-year, reaching a record high of more than 16.4 trillion baht (US$484 billion), or 90.8 per cent of GDP. This places Thailand, Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, among the region’s highest for household debt.
To tackle financing challenges, the government could seek private sector investment or establish public-private partnerships with multilateral institutions. There is interest from the World Bank, for instance, in doing so. The Royal Irrigation Department has launched the US$9.4 billion Chao Phraya 9 Plans to improve flood control in greater Bangkok, and the World Bank is in discussions to provide support, including US$1.85 billion for the project's initial phase.
Thailand faces a critical juncture in addressing the escalating impacts of climate change, particularly severe flooding. While the government has taken steps to address these concerns, efforts must be scaled up to build a more climate resilient future.
About the author
Genevieve Donnellon-May
Genevieve Donnellon-May is a geopolitical and global strategy advisor interested in regional resource conflict and environmental governance in Asia and Africa.
The most-pressing world events explained by Lowy Institute experts and global contributors, in your inbox, every Thursday.
You may unsubscribe from The Interpreter at any time. For information on our privacy practices and how to unsubscribe, see our Privacy Policy.
