Migration & refugees, explained.
Fishing boats sailing along the Naf River, frequently used by traffickers to transport Rohingya refugees, near Teknaf in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar (Munir Uz Zaman/AFP via Getty Images)
Hundreds died crossing the Andaman Sea last week and ASEAN’s partners already have tools to stop the next tragedy.
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The world’s deadliest sea crossing – and the role for AustraliaThe world’s deadliest sea crossing – and the role for Australia
Two boats carrying mostly Rohingya refugees capsized off the coast of Myanmar (Opens in new window) last week, with more than 500 people feared dead in the tragedy.
This is already the deadliest maritime migrant route in the world: one in seven people who attempt to cross the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal do not survive the journey. Last year was the worst year (Opens in new window) on record, with 900 confirmed deaths, and 2026 is already on track to be far worse.
This week foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will meet in Manila (Opens in new window) with counterparts from a range of official “Dialogue Partners” including Australia. The crisis in Myanmar and resulting regional displacement are likely to feature prominently in these talks. This is an opportunity for Dialogue Partners to step up and support a coordinated response.
The lack of an agreed regional framework on displacement issues means that states continue to treat refugees and forced migrants primarily as a domestic security issue. This means that displaced people living in most ASEAN states are forced to live without the ability to work legally or access education – and this is far from a small population.
The 11 member states of ASEAN officially host (Opens in new window) roughly 3.9 million displaced persons, though the true figure is likely far higher given the millions of undocumented migrants fleeing conflict to neighbouring countries including Thailand.
ASEAN’s principle of non-interference makes addressing root causes difficult, especially when member state Myanmar is also a primary driver of displacement. The situation inside Myanmar continues to be dire (Opens in new window): it is the fourth most dangerous country in the world, with about a third of the population in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
While more must be done to address the ongoing conflict and persecution in Myanmar driving millions to flee, the region must also improve the circumstances of those already displaced. Fortunately, this doesn’t require reinventing the wheel.
Displacement will remain a defining regional challenge for years to come, and no single country can manage it alone.
ASEAN members can build directly on existing regional frameworks (Opens in new window) to manage this crisis, aligning with the ASEAN 2045 Vision (Opens in new window) of a “resilient, innovative, dynamic and people-centred” region that “leaves no one behind.” We have already seen promising steps: Thailand recently granted work rights to over 40,000 long-term refugees from Myanmar, demonstrating what practical progress looks like.
Beyond ASEAN’s core member states, a recent report from the Asia Dialogue on Forced Migration (Opens in new window) highlights a critical role for ASEAN Dialogue Partners – including Australia and New Zealand. By stepping up support, these partners can help reduce deaths at sea while expanding humane, viable pathways for displaced communities.
Strengthening maritime cooperation is essential to stop the growing toll of dangerous journeys by sea. High-level platforms like the East Asia Summit and the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum – both of which include key Dialogue Partners – should be used to strengthen humanitarian cooperation on maritime governance, specifically on coordinated search-and-rescue efforts and safe disembarkation. Existing capacity-building programs must also incorporate mixed migration scenarios to better equip frontline responders when encountering vessels in distress.
Dialogue Partners can also help reshape the region’s response to human trafficking. Australia in particular is a major donor to this cause through its “ASEAN-ACT (Opens in new window)” program, but despite this investment Southeast Asia is currently battling a booming human trafficking industry linked to online scam compounds. To reverse this trend, law enforcement and border officials need targeted training to distinguish forced migrants and victims from criminal networks – a shift that would better protect victims of forced criminality and improve responses to maritime smuggling.
By championing both maritime safety and targeted anti-trafficking measures, Dialogue Partners can work with ASEAN to tackle this crisis at both ends: deterring dangerous journeys before they happen and saving lives when they do.
Beyond safety at sea, Dialogue Partners can also help ASEAN states improve conditions for displaced persons already living in host countries.
Many Dialogue Partners have extensive experience developing and implementing sustainable employment and education migration pathways for refugees, and could offer support to design better pathways within existing agreements for migrants. This could include pathways that allow refugees to travel to other countries on skilled or education visas, opening up opportunities to access school, university and/or training programs as a step towards accessing work rights.
Dialogue Partners can also provide technical and financial support for effective “temporary stay” arrangements across ASEAN. These will look different in each country, but supporting documentation processes to enable access to health, education and livelihoods would make a tangible difference not only to individual lives but also regional stability.
Improving these conditions helps host countries as much as displaced populations. When refugees are able to work and access basic services legally, they can contribute to local economies, lighten the load on host country resources, and support broader regional stability.
Displacement will remain a defining regional challenge for years to come, and no single country can manage it alone. By deepening cooperation on maritime safety, anti-trafficking, and access to livelihoods, ASEAN and its Dialogue Partners can build a more stable, prosperous, and people-centred region in line with the ASEAN Charter.
About the authors
Caitlin McCaffrie
Caitlin McCaffrie is Policy Director for Forced Migration and Just Transition (Indonesia) at the Centre for Policy Development.
Christy Kumesan
Christy Kumesan is Senior Project Coordinator for Forced Migration and Just Transition (Indonesia) at the Centre for Policy Development.
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