North Korea, explained.
A photo released by North Korean state media said to show North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his daughter Ju Ae in the Hwasong area of Pyongyang on 16 February (KCNA/AFP via Getty Images)
Analysts once doubted Ju Ae was the chosen heir. The evidence has shifted – but obstacles remain.
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North Korea: Is Kim’s daughter the chosen successor?North Korea: Is Kim’s daughter the chosen successor?
The public emergence of Kim Jong-un’s daughter in November 2022 marked one of the most closely scrutinised moments in recent North Korean politics. Her appearance alongside her father at a missile launch was widely interpreted as symbolic or a distraction. Even her name remains uncertain – while she has commonly been referred to as Ju Ae (used throughout, though unconfirmed), South Korean intelligence recently suggested it may in fact be Ju Hae.
What seemed clear at the time was the initial quasi-consensus among analysts: she was unlikely to be the chosen successor.
That position rested on two assumptions. First, that Kim likely had an older son who would follow the established pattern of male succession. Second, that Ju Ae’s visibility served a different purpose – perhaps reinforcing dynastic continuity, softening her father’s image, or serving as deliberate misdirection. Her presence at high-profile events was notable, but not necessarily determinative.
This scepticism was historically grounded. The North Korean system, while not formally codified as a hereditary monarchy, has functioned as a dynastic regime since its founding. Transitions from Kim Il-sung to Kim Jong-il and then Kim Jong-un followed a male lineage reinforced by institutional grooming and ideological framing. Against this backdrop, a female successor appeared unlikely – not only by precedent, but given the deeply patriarchal structure of North Korean elite politics.
Over time, however, the pattern of Ju Ae’s appearances began to challenge these assumptions, charted in a new report I’ve compiled. Rather than receding from public view, her presence became more frequent and more prominent. She accompanied her father not only to missile launches but to military parades, inspections and even to China last year. In official photographs, she was consistently positioned centrally, with senior figures visibly deferring to her. Such staging is difficult to dismiss as incidental.
Recent photos released by North Korean state media showing Kim Jong-un and his daughter
This visibility also departed from established succession practice, in which formal titles and institutional roles typically preceded extensive public exposure. In Ju Ae’s case, the sequence appeared inverted: her public image was being constructed first, potentially laying the groundwork for later formalisation. The distinction matters analytically. It suggests her father’s calculated decision to normalise her presence within elite consciousness before any formal succession question arises – a preemptive strategy against the structural resistance a female heir would inevitably face.
That interpretation gained considerable support in February 2026, when South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) assessed that Ju Ae had entered an early stage of successor designation. Such assessments carry inherent uncertainty, but the NIS conclusion aligned with a broader shift in expert opinion. An increasing number of analysts have also begun to question whether an older Kim son exists at all, further consolidating the case for Ju Ae as the primary heir.
Her public image was being constructed first, potentially laying the groundwork for later formalisation – a preemptive strategy against the structural resistance a female heir would inevitably face.
Where she was once viewed as a peripheral figure, Ju Ae is now widely assessed as the most likely successor to Kim Jong-un. But even if she is her father’s top choice for the job, this alone far from guarantees her being able to succeed him in practice.
Substantial obstacles remain. Power in North Korea is not inherited automatically but must be consolidated through elite support, military backing and ideological legitimacy. Previous transitions involved systematic grooming within key party and military institutions. Ju Ae has not been granted any official title or institutional role that would anchor her authority within the system.
Gender compounds this challenge. While Kim has promoted women within the political system, elite circles remain overwhelmingly male-dominated. A female leader would represent a marked departure from precedent, and internal resistance from party and military elites cannot be ruled out, even within an ideological framework engineered to accommodate the transition.
The most consequential near-term alternative is Kim Yo Jong. The leader’s sister has accumulated substantial political experience, has cultivated a formidable domestic and international profile, and has demonstrated a willingness to wield power aggressively.
Were Kim Jong-un to die prematurely, before Ju Ae reaches adulthood and acquires institutional standing, the more plausible immediate successor would be his sister rather than a young and inexperienced daughter whose designation remains informal. Kim Yo Jong represents less a competing succession track than a contingency – one that becomes more relevant the longer Ju Ae’s formalisation is deferred.
The clearest signal of confirmed succession would be Ju Ae’s appointment to formal positions within the party or military. Given that such appointments are unlikely before she reaches adulthood, the question may remain structurally unresolved for years. What can be said now is that the trajectory increasingly supports the argument that Kim’s daughter may be the chosen heir.
Myriad factors – including timing, elite support, and the durability of her father’s rule – will decide whether she becomes one in reality.
About the author
Gabriela Bernal
Dr Gabriela Bernal is a Korean affairs analyst based in Seoul, South Korea, and a Non-Resident Fellow at the European Centre for North Korean Studies.
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