17 Mar 2025
Dispatch from Ukraine: The adaptation battle intensifies
Drone warfare over Ukraine offers a powerful demonstration of the need for modern militaries to adapt quickly.
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14 Mar 2025
Russia to boost Myanmar’s imagery intelligence
Has the junta just struck a deal with Moscow to strengthen its monitoring and military capabilities? -
10 Mar 2025
Pyongyang–Moscow ties will outlive the Ukraine conflict
The relationship between Russia and North Korea will be impacted by Washington's stance on Ukraine, but the long-term alliance will remain strong. -
4 Mar 2025
Australian peacekeepers in Ukraine?
Australian soldiers are tough, well equipped, well trained and well led. But this would be a mission like no other. -
4 Mar 2025
Geopolitical fantasists: No, Trump won’t pull off a “reverse Nixon”
The character of international politics is vastly different, now to then. -
1 Mar 2025
Trump strong-arms Zelenskyy: Afghans have seen these tactics before
US talks with the Taliban during Trump 1.0 undercut the nascent Afghan democracy in favour of a “deal”. -
1 Mar 2025
Trump, Russia and Ukraine: Descent into lawlessness
The US President has joined the standover merchants. -
1 Mar 2025
The Oval Office ambush
There is a deep-seated hostility from Trump and Vance towards Zelenskyy that defies short term fixes – so the test of courage falls to other Western leaders. -
28 Feb 2025
Russia’s ASEAN embrace
Moscow has increasingly looked to Southeast Asia for friends, even as distance and sanctions hamper ties. -
25 Feb 2025
Did we learn anything from the war in Ukraine?
With realpolitik back on the menu, there are serious implications for the Indo-Pacific. -
21 Feb 2025
Will shock therapy spur a new realpolitik in Europe?
The ructions in the Western alliance this past week will advance Moscow’s long-term security objectives -
19 Feb 2025
Political lessons for Australia from the war in Ukraine
The concept of sovereign resilience must be implemented from the top of our nation’s political leadership. -
18 Feb 2025
The miseries of Germany’s navel-gazing
With an election on the horizon, the grim situation at home has transmuted foreign policy issues into domestic ones. -
29 Jan 2025
POW law and the plight of Australian Oscar Jenkins in Russia
The intentional killing of prisoners of war is a war crime that can be prosecuted under Australian law. -
28 Jan 2025
Abandoning the rules-based order is no solution
Competing narratives about the international order are being weaponised in an age of renewed territorial ambitions. -
24 Jan 2025
Military trends to watch in 2025
The year ahead will be at least as uncertain, violent and chaotic as 2024. Here are five key trends to watch in 2025. -
22 Jan 2025
A body blow to Putin’s “dirty fleet”
Europe is increasingly cracking down on Russia’s sanction-busting oil trade. -
21 Jan 2025
This time, Russia stands in the way of any US‑North Korea deal
If Donald Trump wants to revive his showpiece negotiation, he will find the calculation has since changed. -
7 Jan 2025
The message North Korea sends by rotating its troops in Russia
Deeper military ties between these partners in arms reflect a stronger strategic alignment than the transactional relationship first anticipated. -
18 Dec 2024
What I’ll be watching for in 2025
Lowy researchers gaze at their crystal balls – with questions, more than answers, for the year ahead. -
13 Dec 2024
Ignoring the real biowarfare threat
The sudden renovation at an old Soviet biological weapons site needs to be better explained. -
3 Dec 2024
Is Russia the loser in the fall of Syria’s Aleppo?
Moscow cannot meaningfully aid its ally, and that’s not gone unnoticed. -
22 Nov 2024
Russia escalates, strikes Ukraine with a new missile, warns West
Putin wants to target Europe’s commitment to support Ukraine. -
21 Nov 2024
Cat-astrophe! What happens when dirty-minded North Koreans meet Iranian nuclear purrfidy
I spy an invisible cat. Two, in fact. -
21 Nov 2024
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18 Nov 2024
An early winter in Kyiv?
Unpicking the implications of Trump’s election win on the war in Ukraine. -
15 Nov 2024
What does Trump’s return mean for America’s relations with Russia?
Whatever happens over the next four years, the underlying causes of Russia–US confrontation won’t go away. -
12 Nov 2024
The West’s unfounded Chussia Anxiety
Russia will not long tolerate its increasingly vassal-like status to China. -
6 Nov 2024
Moldova and Georgia serve as geopolitical bellwethers
With the two countries on diverging paths after recent elections, the choice appears to be between Russia and the West. -
5 Nov 2024
What’s new in Russia’s latest nuclear statement?
Vladimir Putin has rattled his sabre once again in the face of US and NATO deliberations on Ukraine’s use of weapons. -
25 Oct 2024
As Russia struggles in Ukraine, North Korea benefits
Having found common cause under sanctions, Pyongyang and Moscow are forging new economic geography and with it pan-continental security dynamics. -
21 Oct 2024
Central Asia: An emerging battlefield for strategic minerals
The region’s rare earth elements are in demand, but ties with Russia and China mean diversifying is easier said than done. -
17 Oct 2024
North Korean troops in Russia: The first test of the Russia-North Korea alliance
Should the deployment be confirmed, history offers three ways to gauge the cohesion of Pyongyang’s ties to Moscow. -
17 Oct 2024
A shared struggle: Ukrainians and their volunteer supporters on the front lines
An unyielding will in the face of invasion has inspired heroes at home and from afar. -
7 Oct 2024
Kamala Harris and Ukraine: Is the US truly committed to Ukrainian victory?
The only nation with a viable theory of victory is Russia. Harris must decide if the US will change that equation. -
3 Oct 2024
Trump may surprise us on the Ukraine war
If Donald Trump can’t achieve a quick solution in Ukraine, he could well turn on Putin and increase US support to Ukraine. -
24 Sep 2024
North Korea and its middle power friends
The latest Asia Power Index has Pyongyang pegged as Moscow’s best buddy…for now. -
6 Sep 2024
Russian sanctions: Why has Australia stayed quiet on reparations?
With strong rule of law credentials and expertise, Canberra should use its advantage in responses to war. -
4 Sep 2024
Will Russia violate the Antarctic Treaty?
For Moscow, science has always come second to ideology. -
3 Sep 2024
Russia and the Middle East: Positioning for advantage
Moscow has made a cynical calculation that conflict serves its interests. -
3 Sep 2024
Hong Kong keeps Russia’s dark fleet afloat
Operating under flags of convenience, hundreds of vessels are evading the sanctions meant to stifle movement. -
30 Aug 2024
Is Russia really European anymore?
Cut off from the West, Russia is making a turn to Asia. But this leaves a cultural wound. -
21 Aug 2024
Surprise and modern war
The Kursk offensive is a reminder of the enduring power of surprise. Prudence suggests that Australia needs be prepared. -
20 Aug 2024
Central Asia's energy drive spurs regional integration
No longer in the “middle of nowhere”, Central Asian countries are collaborating and diversifying, often away from Russia. -
16 Aug 2024
Explaining Ukraine’s hopes with a bold attack in Kursk – and how it might backfire, badly
In a calculated gamble, the purpose appears as much political as military: a positive shift to the narrative, directed at multiple audiences. -
22 Jul 2024
The deadly consequences of misclassifying foreign fighters in Ukraine
Russia calls them mercenaries to deny international legal protections. Accountability is essential. -
19 Jul 2024
Does democracy still matter in the ‘New Cold War’ between the US and China?
Contradictions between the two models of governance make coexistence among superpowers difficult. -
12 Jul 2024
The global evolution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
With countries from outside the region looking to join, is the SCO about to beef up its geopolitical clout? -
10 Jul 2024
Modi’s Moscow miscalculation
Despite the bluster about foreign policy independence, the Indian PM could have kept Putin at a distance. -
5 Jul 2024
Putin’s diplomacy roadshow in North Korea and Vietnam
Despite Moscow’s charm offensive, regional states are keeping their options open, and China remains the partner of choice.