12 Sep 2023
ASEAN, China and the trust deficit
The gap between rhetoric and action is Beijing’s biggest problem – and the region showed it isn’t afraid to call this out.
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6 Sep 2023
The Fix: Explaining Indonesia’s silence in the North Natuna Sea
Your weekly Interpreter feature about issues, resources or helpful distractions that might otherwise be missed. -
17 Jul 2023
It might be plastic fantastic, but Barbie lends cartoonish credibility to China’s nine-dash line
Barbie does her dash with Vietnam, showing how maps have meaning. -
14 Jul 2023
Despite the excitement, India’s South China Sea policy remains unchanged
Backing the Philippines over the 2016 arbitration award doesn’t mean India is about to abandon caution in efforts to balance China. -
19 Jun 2023
Acting East on the seas: India’s naval cooperation with ASEAN
Strengthening defence ties is smooth sailing compared to wider regional integration efforts by New Delhi with Southeast Asia. -
5 May 2023
Indonesia’s dilemma as China pushes a “Global Security Initiative”
Existing regional mechanisms can accommodate diverse interests in Southeast Asia without the need for a new forum. -
30 Mar 2023
Climate change, ironically, reduces the heat in the South China Sea
The days for oil and gas are numbered, so the economic case of a fight over undersea resources doesn’t stack up. -
3 Feb 2023
Global energy scarcity and the South China Sea
A new source of natural gas within the controversial “nine-dash line” should revive questions about sharing access. -
26 Jul 2022
Answering China’s South China Sea flying safety challenge
A regional response can best manage risks, and the Five Power Defence Arrangement offers just the mechanism. -
6 Jun 2022
A flare up in China’s deliberate pattern of aggression
The intercept of an Australian patrol over the South China Sea escalates a “grey zone” conflict to a dangerous level. -
15 Apr 2022
Taming troubled waters
Looking from Vietnam, multi-layer joint efforts to ensure maritime security are welcome in the South China Sea. -
6 Apr 2022
Protecting law and order at sea means educating people on their rights
Broad understanding about the need to balance and compromise interests will strengthen the system of international law. -
4 Apr 2022
Cause and effect: The right security architecture for the Indo-Pacific
Limitations in the established rules and forums have led the region to innovate. -
1 Apr 2022
“Lawfare” in the South China Sea disputes
Legal mechanisms, while not definitive, have compelled the claimants to examine their position and communicate them. -
25 Mar 2022
Stiffening the ASEAN spine in the South China Sea
Any “minilateral” grouping among Southeast Asian nations must be mindful of its internal contradictions. -
3 Feb 2022
Navigating the limits in the South China Sea
A new US report casts doubt on the legality of Chinese maritime claims by also critically examining Australian practice. -
26 Jan 2022
Indonesia standing between great powers
Non-alignment has long defined Jakarta’s approach in the world. Neither China’s threats or US pledges will change that. -
24 Jan 2022
Could minilateralism work in the South China Sea?
Jakarta’s ambitions for a maritime alliance with its ASEAN neighbours is the right response to intimidation from China. -
23 Dec 2021
Myths that stir trouble in the South China Sea
A major shipping route, yes, but vital? False claims about the value of these waters only make diplomacy harder. -
5 Nov 2021
Australia’s chance to dream with Southeast Asia
As a United States ally, Canberra can be a bridge between the region and Washington. -
2 Sep 2021
Europe and the South China Sea
More warships in disputed waters may cause instability. But the presence of navies from afar sends a clear message, too. -
31 Aug 2021
Deliberate ambiguity of China’s new “territorial waters” declaration
A hastily introduced regulation requiring vessels to register may be contrary to the rights of innocent passage. -
12 Jul 2021
Whatever happened to the South China Sea ruling?
Five years ago the Philippines largely squandered a crucial legal win. But it’s not too late to marshal support. -
24 Feb 2021
What are China’s leaders saying about the South China Sea?
The rhetoric weaves between cooperative and competitive, leaving the question of what – and who – to believe. -
17 Feb 2021
How China is bending the rules in the South China Sea
Beijing’s misapplication of international law in the disputed waters is more complex than it seems on the surface. -
12 Feb 2021
CCP governance comes to the South China Sea
Focusing exclusively on China’s use of coercion across the region obscures the true extent of Beijing’s ambitions. -
27 Nov 2020
Beijing’s line on the South China Sea: “Nothing to see here”
China’s official denials of growing military capability in the region look a lot like gaslighting. -
19 Nov 2020
Economic diplomacy: Navigating Asia’s trade tangle and a NSW “step-up”
Plus, revisiting assumptions that China would be reluctant to interfere with South China Sea trade routes. -
23 Oct 2020
Reading between the lines: Duterte’s careful South China Sea speech
The President of the Philippines may stump up with more nationalist rhetoric, but his true message to Beijing is plain. -
22 Sep 2020
The South China Sea map that wasn’t
A mistake? Maybe. But a US map of Vietnam including the Paracel and Spratly islands raises big questions. -
28 Aug 2020
Jakarta should be wary of Beijing’s South China Sea proposals
“Joint development” is a misnomer when China has no legal stake in what is Indonesian territory. -
12 Aug 2020
China is overturning the rules-based order from within
By contesting basic principles of international law, China is doing far more damage than is often recognised. -
3 Aug 2020
Brunei, ASEAN and the South China Sea
A long-silent claimant has spoken, but will it be heard? -
25 Jul 2020
Australia lays down the law in the South China Sea dispute
Canberra rejects the PRC’s “historic rights” claim to contested waters but now faces the test of what to do about it. -
1 Jul 2020
After ASEAN summit, little change on the South China Sea
Despite expectations leaders might collectively rebuke China for its latest actions, the message was more uncertain. -
19 May 2020
As Jakarta trims defence, Beijing makes waves in the South China Sea
Covid-19 has seen Southeast Asian countries cut defence budgets just as maritime threats look to be growing dire. -
27 Apr 2020
Troubled waters: China’s sovereign ambition in the shadows of Covid-19
While the US is busy containing the coronavirus, Beijing stakes its claims in the South China Sea. -
28 Jan 2020
Forging consensus in the South China Sea
By backing each other’s claims, a united Southeast Asian front would be difficult for Beijing to divide and conquer. -
9 Jan 2020
Can Indonesia lead? Maritime tensions with China escalate
Natuna Islands in the South China Sea has flared again, with Jakarta giving every indication it’s not for backing down. -
4 Dec 2019
In conversation: Malaysia’s Foreign Minister on great power rivalry
From the South China Sea to the Rohingya crisis, Saifuddin Abdullah speaks to Lowy’s Ben Bland on Asia’s big challenges. -
28 Aug 2019
The Philippine standoff over China
President Rodrigo Duterte has chosen to woo Beijing, in spite of widespread public objection. -
16 Aug 2019
The Vanguard Bank standoff shows China remains undeterred
<p>Coercion rather than conciliation is Beijing’s preferred tactic in South China Sea disputes.</p> -
30 May 2018
South China Sea: Paracels in the spotlight
While Vietnam would welcome American warships sailing near the disputed islands, other Southeast Asian counties would be concerned about escalating militarisation. -
30 Mar 2018
Deterrence under the dragon’s shadow: Vietnam’s military modernisation
Vietnam has long sought to calibrate its defence posture in the shadows of great power competition. -
8 Feb 2018
ASEAN: different strokes for different folks, but future should be in sync
Communicating contradictory images and aspirations does not help create a consistent perception of ASEAN among its external partners. -
6 Dec 2017
How America can build a durable military balance in Asia
China’s neighbours are not passive dominoes or feckless pawns in a US-China power contest. -
22 Nov 2017
Trump’s truancy in Asia could hasten a hegemon’s demise
China is forging ahead with a regional counter-order to displace America. -
21 Nov 2017
Trump's coming hard line on China
Three domestic factors are likely to drive the US toward a tougher China policy. -
10 Nov 2017
ASEAN summit should focus on the possible
Too much time on problems without solutions will doom ASEAN to paltry progress. -
10 Nov 2017
Quad redux: A new agenda for Asia's maritime democracies
It is sobering that Indian diplomats are talking of the Quad as a way to stiffen Australia’s spine.